000 AXNT20 KNHC 120005 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Feb 12 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the subtropical Atlantic high and Colombia Low will continue to support strong to gale-force E to NE winds in the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia through midweek. Seas with these winds will range from 10 to 13 ft. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extends southwestward from a 1011 mb low just SW of the Florida Big Bend to the Yucatan peninsula. The low, followed by strong high pressure centered over northern Mexico, is forecast to strengthen and introduce strong to gale winds with 11 to 14 ft seas at the northeastern Gulf this evening through early Sun. Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A frontal 1011 mb low currently over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico will gradually strengthen, while track northeastward across northern Florida and southern Georgia up the eastern seaboard of the United States Sun and Mon. This process will bring strong to gale-force winds N of 29N on both sides of the front from Sun evening through Mon night between 77W and 65W. Seas in and near these gales will peak between 12 and 16 ft. For all the above Gale Warnings, please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is confined to inland Africa. The ITCZ extends from 06N16W to 00N30W to 03N42W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N to 10N between 30W and 45W, and from 11N to 23N E of 30W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information on two Gale Warnings. A 1011 mb low is located just offshore the Florida Big Bend with a cold front extending southwestward to Yucatan. Strong to near gale force NW to N winds follow this front all the way to 95W due to a tight pressure gradient against strong high pressure over northern Mexico. Seas behind the front and across most of the basin are in the 8-12 ft range, except for 13-14 ft in the Bay of Campeche. Moderate to fresh winds are ahead of the front in the far SE gulf E of 83W. For the forecast, the low will move northeastward out of the Gulf tonight while strengthening, and W gales are forecast to develop in the NE Gulf in its wake. Winds and seas should gradually diminish from west to east beginning Sun evening. From Mon night through Wed night, strong to near gale SE to S return flow should develop over the W Gulf. In the extended range, the next cold front should emerge off of the Texas coast on Thu. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section about a Gale Warning off the coast of Colombia. Broad ridging associated with high pressure of 1026 nm centered near 30N49W continues to sustain a easterly trade-wind regime for the entire basin. Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong E winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft exist E of 82W. Gentle to moderate E winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft dominate the NW Caribbean. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E trades will continue over the central and E Caribbean Sea through the weekend. These winds will pulse to gale force near the coast of Colombia at night through Thu. A cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel tonight, extend from W Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Sun morning, then dissipate by Mon. Fresh N winds are expected behind the front over the NW Caribbean on Sun and Sun night. Elsewhere, large and long- period E swell with seas at 8 to 10 ft is over the tropical N Atlantic. This swell is affecting the Lesser Antilles and will continue tonight and Sun before gradually subsiding Mon. In the extended range, a building ridge north of the area will strengthen the trades across the Caribbean on Wed and Thu. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning over the western Atlantic north of the Bahamas. Surface high pressure of 1023 mb centered near 28N67W extends a ridge across the SW N Atlantic subtropical waters. The pressure gradient between this ridge and an approaching cold front from the W is supporting fresh to strong S winds N of the Bahamas and W of 78W. It is also supporting winds of the same magnitude just N of Hispaniola and the approaches to the Mona and Windward passages. Large and long-period E swell with seas at 8 to 9 ft is occurring south of 23N and east of the Turks and Caicos Islands. The swell is affecting areas from Hispaniola to the Lesser Antilles. Otherwise, a broad subtropical ridge covers the remainder central and E Atlantic waters, supporting mainly gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas to 8 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, a low pressure and its associated cold front will move off Georgia and NE Florida late tonight. As the low moves northeastward away from the area, the cold front will drag across the W Atlantic. It will reach from just west of Bermuda to E Cuba Mon morning, from just east of Bermuda to Hispaniola Tue morning, and from 27N55W to 22N64W Wed morning. Strong winds and rough seas will occur on both sides of the front, mainly north of 26N, through Tue. North of 29N, gales are expected on both sides of the front Sun through Mon. The swell affecting areas from Hispaniola to the Lesser Antilles will continue tonight before gradually subsiding. In the extended range, a building ridge north of the area will strengthen the trades south of 25N on Wed and Thu. $$ Ramos