000 AXNT20 KNHC 111015 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Feb 11 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the subtropical Atlantic high and lower pressure that exists over Colombia and Panama will continue to support pulsing nighttime E to NE gale-force winds in the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia into early next week. Seas with these winds will range from 10 to 14 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front that extends from near the Florida Big Bend to the Bay of Campeche is inducing strong winds behind it. Offshore Veracruz, northerly gales are occurring and will continue into the afternoon. Low pressure, currently 1017 mb, along the front just offshore the Florida Big Bend will move NE into tonight, away from the area, while strengthening. As this strengthening occurs, W to NW winds behind the cold front in the NE Gulf will increase to gale force overnight, then diminish below gale levels on Sun as the low moves farther away. Seas in the SW Gulf from the strong to gale force winds will reach 12 to 17 ft today, with seas in the NE Gulf tonight increasing to 12 to 14 ft. Winds and seas will gradually decrease Sun and Sun night as high pressure builds toward the Gulf of Mexico. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Western Atlantic Gale Warning: Low pressure will track NE from NE Florida up the eastern seaboard of the United States tonight into Sun. As it does, a cold front will drag across Atlantic waters into early next week. As the low strengthens, winds N of 29N will reach gale force on both sides of the front starting Sun and continuing into Mon, beginning as far W as 77W and ending around 65W. Seas in and near the areas of gales will increase to 12 to 15 ft Sun night into Monday, with large northerly swell contributing to continued rough seas through early week, even after winds begin to diminish. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W southwestward to 05N16W. The ITCZ continues from 05N16W to 02N25W to 01N40W and to the coast of Brazil near 00N47W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01S to 05N between 22W and 42W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information on Gale Warnings in the Gulf of Mexico. A cold front extends from near the Florida Big Bend to the Bay of Campeche, with a 1017 mb low pressure center along it just offshore Florida. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm on both sides of the front. Behind the front, aside from the aforementioned gales, strong N winds dominate the W Gulf, with fresh NE winds in the NE Gulf. Ahead of the front, gentle to moderate mainly southerly winds prevail. Seas in the western Gulf are 8 to 12 ft, with 4 to 6 ft seas in the NE Gulf, and 2 to 4 ft in the SE Gulf ahead of the cold front. For the forecast, by tonight, the low will move NE out of the Gulf while strengthening, and the cold front will move SE and out of the basin. Strong winds and rough seas will follow the front. Winds and seas should gradually diminish from west to east beginning Sun evening. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning for the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. Strong trades dominate the central Caribbean, with fresh to locally strong trades in the eastern Basin. Mainly fresh trades are present in the SW basin, with gentle to moderate winds in the NW. Earlier strong winds in the Windward and Mona Passages have diminished diurnally, but locally fresh winds remain. Seas throughout the basin range from 7 to 10 ft, except in the NW Caribbean where seas of 3 to 6 ft dominate. For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will continue over the central and northeastern Caribbean Sea, with fresh winds in the eastern Caribbean, through the weekend. A cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel this evening and from central Cuba to offshore Honduras Sun night, bringing fresh northerly winds. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning over the western Atlantic north of the Bahamas. An expansive Bermuda Ridge is currently dominating much of the basin, with the only features being a pair of weakening low pressure between the Azores and Canary Islands and a surface trough that extends SW to 31N32W to 24N41W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 30 nm of this trough. Winds N and W of the trough, W to 45W are fresh to locally strong out of the N, with gentle winds to the E. Elsewhere N of 22N, gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow dominates, with some locally fresh return flow off the Florida coast. To the S, mainly fresh trades dominate. Seas where these fresh winds are occurring as well as in the zone of higher winds behind the aforementioned surface trough are 8 to 10 ft, with 5 to 7 ft seas dominating elsewhere. For the forecast W of 55W, low pressure and its associated cold front will move off Georgia and northeastern Florida tonight. As the low moves NE away from the area, the cold front will drag across the western Atlantic into Tue. Strong winds and rough seas will occur on both sides of the front, mainly N of 26N, through Tue. Elsewhere, large and long period northerly swell, with seas at 8 to 10 ft, is occurring south of 24N and east of the Turks and Caicos Islands. This swell is affecting areas from Hispaniola to the Lesser Antilles and this trend will continue today before gradually subsiding. $$ KONARIK