000 AXNT20 KNHC 110540 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Feb 11 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the subtropical Atlantic high and lower pressure that exists over Colombia and Panama will continue to support pulsing nighttime E to NE gale-force winds in the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia through the weekend. Seas with these winds will range from 10-14 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Low pressure of 1017 mb has formed offshore the Florida Big Bend near 28N87W along a cold front extending SW to Veracruz, Mexico. A recent satellite scatterometer pass revealed gale force N winds offshore Mexico west of 95W and south of 24N, with strong gales recorded offshore Veracruz. Strong N winds are elsewhere west of the front over the western and north-central Gulf, including offshore the FL Panhandle. Gale force winds will persist into Sat afternoon. Then, the low will move NE out of the Gulf while strengthening, and gales will likely develop in the NE Gulf in its wake. Rough seas of 12 to 15 ft will be present in and near these areas of gale-force winds. Winds and seas should gradually diminish from west to east beginning Sun evening. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtmlfor more details. Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A low pressure and its associated cold front will move off Georgia and northeastern Florida Sat. As the low moves NE away from the area, the cold front will drag across the western Atlantic through Mon night. Strong winds and rough seas will occur on both sides of the front, mainly N of 27N, into Tue. N of 29N, gales are likely on both sides of the front Sun through Mon. These winds will generate 8 to 10 ft seas north of the Bahamas. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W southwestward to 03N16W to 06N16W. The ITCZ continues from 06N16W to 03N20W to 00N30W to 01N40W and to the coast of Brazil near 00S47W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01S to 04N between 23W and 37W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a GALE WARNING for the SW Gulf. Outside the gale force winds, moderate S-SE winds are ahead of the cold front north of 25N, where seas are 3 to 5 ft. Moderate to fresh winds are noted in the Straits of Florida east of Key west. Aside from the winds and seas, scattered showers and thunderstorms are affecting the waters ahead and behind the front between 83W and 95W, N of 24N. For the forecast, strong to near gale force W to NW winds and 8 to 10 ft will cover the west-central Gulf, mainly west of 85W and the Bay of Campeche, tomorrow afternoon. The low pressure center will move inland over the FL Panhandle, allowing for winds and seas to subside in the western Gulf Sunday morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a GALE WARNING for the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong trades affect most of the Caribbean E of 81W, including the Windward and Mona Passages. In the central Caribbean, between 68W and 78W, winds are strong to near gale force with seas of 9 to 11 ft. Seas of 6 to 9 ft are elsewhere in the aforementioned region. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are in the NW basin with seas to 6 ft, except in the Gulf of Honduras, where winds remain fresh. For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will continue over the central and northeastern Caribbean Sea, with fresh winds in the eastern Caribbean continuing through this weekend. These winds will pulse to gale force near the coast of Colombia at night into Mon. Fresh to locally strong winds will continue in the Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras tonight. A cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel Sat evening and from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Sun, bringing fresh northerly winds. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a GALE WARNING over the western Atlantic north of the Bahamas. The Bermuda High covers the SW and central Atlantic subtropical waters, supporting the continuation of fresh winds large and long period mixed NE and E swell, with seas at 8 to 9 ft, south of 24N and east of the southern Bahamas. Locally strong winds are also in this region, including N of Hispaniola and the approaches of both the Mona and Windward passages. Moderate to fresh southerly winds have begun along the Florida Seaboard N of West Palm Beach and the NE Florida offshore waters ahead of an approaching cold front, currently in the Gulf of Mexico. Farther east, the tail of a cold front extends from 31N33W SW to 25N40W. Fresh to strong N winds are in the wake of this front extending W to 47W and N of 24N. Seas of 8 to 10 ft are in the vicinity of the front. Elsewhere, a large area of fresh trades winds prevails south of 20N and W of 37W due to the pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and the lower pressures over the deep tropics. Seas are 8 to 10 ft, with the highest seas west of 50W. For the forecast W of 55W, please see the Special Features section for details on a low pressure moving off the Georgia coast, bringing gale-force winds to the western Atlantic. The aforementioned swell affecting areas from the Bahamas to Hispaniola to the Lesser Antilles will continue into Sat before gradually subsiding. $$ Mora