000 AXNT20 KNHC 102350 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Feb 11 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the subtropical Atlantic high and lower pressure that exists over Colombia and Panama will continue to support pulsing nighttime E to NE gale-force winds in the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia through the weekend. Seas with these winds will range from 10-14 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends from Cape San Blas, Florida SW to Veracruz, Mexico at 2100 UTC. Northerly gale- force winds are in the lee of the cold front S of 25N and offshore of Veracruz, Mexico forecast to continue through Sat morning. Higher gales to 40 kt are possible in the SW Gulf this evening and tonight, before diminishing slightly to 35 kt in the early morning hours. Very rough seas from of 12-17 ft are expected with the gales in the lee of the front, with the highest seas forecast in the SW Gulf. Winds will diminish below gale force tomorrow afternoon. Seas will begin to subside Saturday evening, with significant wave heights becoming lower than 8 ft by Sunday evening. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtmlfor more details. East Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo-France has a Gale Warning for the AGADIR and TARFAYA Offshore Zones, effective through 11/0600 UTC. Seas currently 8-12 ft will build to 13 ft tonight. For more information, please see the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website: wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W southwestward to 03N16W to 03N21W. The ITCZ continues from 03N21W to 00N30W to 01N36W and then from 00N41W to 00N50W. Scattered showers are from 02S to 07N between 22W and 48W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a GALE WARNING for the SW Gulf. A strong cold front extends from Cape San Blas, Florida SW to Veracruz, Mexico at 2100 UTC. Fresh to strong N winds are behind the front N of 26N with 5 to 8 ft seas. Near gale to gale-force winds are in the wake of the front S of 26N with 8 to 12 ft seas and building. Ahead of the front, winds are gentle to moderate with seas to 4 ft. Aside from the winds and seas, scattered showers and tstms are affecting the waters ahead and behind the front between 83W and 95W, N of 22N. For the forecast, winds at the west-central Gulf and western Bay of Campeche should decrease to between strong and near-gale by Sat morning. However, frequent gusts to gale force are expected at the central Bay of Campeche Sat. As the front reaches from the Florida Big Bend area to the Yucatan Peninsula Sat afternoon, strong to near-gale winds will shift eastward to the central and northeastern Gulf. There will be frequent gusts to gale force at the northeastern Gulf until Sun afternoon. Winds and seas should gradually diminish from west to east beginning Sun evening. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a GALE WARNING for the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong trades are affecting most of the Caribbean E of 81W, including the Windward and Mona Passages. In the central Caribbean, between 68W and 78W, winds are strong to near gale force with seas of 8 to 10 ft. Seas of 5 to 9 ft are elsewhere in the aforementioned region. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are in the NW basin with seas to 6 ft, except in the Gulf of Honduras where winds continue to be fresh to strong. For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will continue over the central and northeastern Caribbean Sea, with fresh winds at the eastern Caribbean through this weekend. These winds will pulse to gale force near the coast of Colombia at night through Sun night. Fresh to locally strong winds will continue in the Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras through this evening. Looking ahead, a cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel Sat afternoon and from western Cuba to offshore from Honduras Sun morning, bringing fresh to locally strong northerly winds. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on an EAST ATLANTIC GALE WARNING issue by Meteo-France. The Bermuda High covers the SW and central Atlantic subtropical waters, supporting the continuation of large and long period mixed NE and E swell, with seas at 8 to 9 ft, south of 24N and east of the southern Bahamas. Fresh to locally strong winds are also in this region, including N of Hispaniola, and the approaches of both the Mona and Windward passages. Moderate to fresh southerly winds have begun along the Florida Seaboard N of West Palm Beach as well as the NE Florida offshore waters ahead of an approaching cold front, currently in the Gulf of Mexico. Farther east, the tail of a cold front extends from 31N35W SW to 26N41W. Fresh to strong N winds are in the wake of this front extending W to 47W and N of 26N. Seas of 8 to 10 ft are in the vicinity of the front. For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned swell affecting areas from the Bahamas to Hispaniola to the Lesser Antilles will continue into Sat before gradually subsiding. A low pressure and its associated cold front will move off Georgia and northeastern Florida on Sat. The low will move northeastward, dragging the cold front across the western Atlantic Sat night through Mon night. Strong to near gale force winds and rough seas are expected on both sides of the front, mainly N of 27N through Mon night. There is a chance for gale winds from Sun morning through Mon. $$ Ramos