000 AXNT20 KNHC 101031 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Feb 10 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a high pressure center of 1029 mb that is located near Bermuda near 33N62W and lower pressure that exists over Colombia and Panama will continue to support pulsing nighttime gale-force winds in the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia into the upcoming weekend. Seas with these winds are forecast to range from 10-14 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf this morning and merge with the stalled front currently over the central Gulf. The merged front will reach from Apalachicola, FL, to the central Bay of Campeche this evening, and from near the Florida Big Bend to the Yucatan Channel by Sat afternoon. Northerly gale-force winds are expected near Tampico, Mexico this afternoon, and offshore Veracruz, Mexico late this afternoon through Sat morning. Slightly higher winds of nearly 40 kt may occur in the SW Gulf on Fri night, then diminish to back 25-35 kt on Sat morning. Similar 25-35 kt winds are forecast to persist in the central Bay of Campeche through Sat morning. Very rough seas in the range of 11-18 ft are expected in the wake of the front, with the highest seas occurring in the SW Gulf. The gale-force winds off Tampico are forecast to diminish by late tonight, and the gale-force winds off Veracruz are forecast to diminish on Sat afternoon. Seas subside late Sat night into early on Sun. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtmlfor more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends the coast of Guinea near 10N14W southwestward to 03N20W, where it transitions to the ITCZ. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to 00N45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01S to 10N between 16N and 45W. GULF OF MEXICO... A strong cold front is forecast to bring gale-force northerly winds to the SW Gulf until early Saturday. Please see the Special Features section for details. Early this morning a stationary front extends from near Pensacola, Florida, SW to the central Bay of Campeche. No convection is occurring with this boundary or elsewhere in the basin. Gentle to moderate NE winds are noted behind the front with gentle to moderate mainly SE winds ahead of it. Locally fresh winds are occurring in the Florida Straits. Seas in the Gulf are 3 to 5 ft, with locally 6 ft seas in the Florida Straits. Some areas of fog are restricting visibility within about 90 nm of the lower and middle Texas coast. For the forecast, a cold front that will move off the Texas coast this morning, then track east, reaching from the Florida Big Bend to the Yucatan Peninsula by Sat. Very rough seas are expected in the wake of the front, especially over the SW Gulf. Low pressure is forecast to form along the cold front by Sat over the NE Gulf. Strong to near- gale force winds are expected near this low pres over the NE Gulf Sat night before it moves over land toward the Georgia coast. Winds and seas will gradually diminish from W to E late Sun. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning that is in effect for the waters near the coast of Colombia. Strong NE to E trades encompass the NE, central, and SW basin, with mainly fresh trades elsewhere. Seas are 8 to 12 ft, except 4 to 7 ft in the NW basin. No convection is noted. For the forecast, strong trade winds will continue over the central and NE Caribbean Sea, with fresh winds elsewhere over the eastern Caribbean through Sat night. Fresh to strong winds will continue in the Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras through tonight. Looking ahead, a cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel late Sat and reach from central Cuba to offshore Honduras late Sun. Fresh to locally strong N winds and moderate to rough seas are expected in the wake of the front. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Seas across the western Atlantic have generally fallen below 12 ft, but a large area of 10 to 11 ft seas are impacting a zone S of 25N between 55W and 70W. Seas of 8 to 10 ft continue to impact N and E facing islands of the Bahamas, Turks and Caicos, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and the Lesser Antilles. Seas will continue to slowly subside into Saturday. A dissipating cold front is noted from 31N41W to 25N50W. To the NW, 1029 mb high pressure is centered just SE of Bermuda. Mainly moderate N winds are occurring between the front and high pressure center. To the S, fresh trades dominate areas S of 23N. To the west, gentle to moderate southerly return flow has set up to the W and SW of the high, mainly W of 70W. To the N of the trades, E of 40W, mainly gentle winds dominate. The weather pattern for the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is influenced by high pressure located to the NE and E of the aforementioned front. Seas across much of the basin average 8 to 10 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, large and long period northerly swell, with seas up to 11 ft, are occurring south of 27N and east of the Bahamas. This swell will continue to affect the area through Sat, before gradually subsiding. A cold front will move off NE Florida by Sat. A low pressure is expected to develop along the frontal boundary over the NE Gulf of Mexico and move to the coast of Georgia by Sat evening. The low will move NE, dragging the cold front across the forecast region Sat night through Mon night. Strong to near gale force winds and rough seas are expected on both sides of the front, mainly N of 27N, with gale force westerly winds likely north of 29N on Sun and Sun night. $$ KONARIK