000 AXNT20 KNHC 100549 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Feb 10 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a high pressure center of 1029 mb that is located near Bermuda near 33N62W and relatively lower pressure that exists over Colombia and Panama will continue to support pulsing nighttime gale-force winds in the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia through the rest of the week and into the upcoming weekend. Seas with these winds are forecast to range from 10-14 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf early Fri morning and merge with the stalled front currently over the central Gulf. The merged front will reach from Apalachicola, FL, to the central Bay of Campeche Fri evening, and from near the Florida Big Bend to the Yucatan Channel by Sat afternoon. Northerly gale-force winds are expected near Tampico, Mexico Fri afternoon, and offshore Veracruz, Mexico late Fri afternoon through Sat morning. Slightly higher winds of nearly 40 kt may occur in the SW Gulf on Fri night, then diminishing to back 25-35 kt on Sat morning. Similar 25-35 kt winds are forecast to persist in the central Bay of Campeche through Sat morning. Very rough seas in the range of 11-18 ft are expected in the wake of the front, with the highest seas occurring in the SW Gulf. The gale-force winds off Tampico are forecast to diminish by late Fri night, and the gale-force winds off Veracruz are forecast to diminish on Sat afternoon. Seas subside late Sat night into early on Sun. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtmlfor more details. Atlantic Ocean Large Swell Event: 12 ft NE swell is beginning to subside in the western Atlantic waters, with the highest seas contained to the area from 20N to 23N and between 60W and 66W. Large seas of 10 to 11 ft continue to affect the north and east-facing Islands of the Bahamas and the Greater Antilles. Seas will continue to subside Friday into Saturday, dropping below 10 ft significant wave heights. Until then, mariners navigating these waters can possibly encounter hazardous marine conditions. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends the coast of Guinea near 10N14W southwestward to 03N20W, where it transitions to the ITCZ. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to 03N30W to 00N40W to 00N45W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the ITCZ/Monsoon trough axis between 15W and 35W. Similar convection is also from 03S to 04N between 35W and 41W. GULF OF MEXICO... A strong cold front is forecast to bring gale-force northerly winds to the SW Gulf from Friday until early Saturday. Please see the Special Features section for details. As of 0300 UTC, a stationary front stretches from near Pensacola, Florida, southwestward to the central Bay of Campeche. Scattered convection has moved out of the Gulf of Mexico, isolated showers are possible over the NE Gulf into tomorrow morning. A recent scatterometer pass revealed moderate NE to E winds behind the front over the central and western Gulf, where seas are 3 to 5 ft. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are ahead of the front, mainly east of 90W, where seas are 2 to 4 ft. Winds shift to E-NE west of 90W and ahead of the front. For the forecast, the stationary front will remain through this evening. A strong cold front will enter the NW Gulf early Fri morning and merge with the stalled front Fri evening from the western Florida Panhandle to the central Bay of Campeche. The front will reach from near the Florida Big Bend to the Yucatan Channel by Sat afternoon. Northerly gale-force winds and very seas are expected behind this cold front. Low pressure is likely to form along the frontal boundary Sat over the NE Gulf. Strong to near-gale force winds are expected near this low pres over the NE Gulf Sat and Sat night before it moves over land toward the Georgia coast. Winds and seas will gradually diminish from W to E late Sun. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for details on an ongoing Gale Warning that is presently in effect for the waters near the coast of Colombia. A recent scatterometer satellite pass noted strong NE to E trade winds over the central Caribbean, Gulf of Venezuela, and Windward passage. Strong trades are likely between 65W and 78W, with winds reaching near-gale to gale force near the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong trade winds are over the eastern Caribbean sea. Rough seas of 8 to 12 ft cover a large portion of the central and eastern Caribbean Sea, including within the Windward and Mona Passages. Seas will continue to build overnight for the central and eastern Caribbean sea with the support of strong to near-gale force trade winds. Elsewhere, fresh trades were also noted within the Gulf of Honduras, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Patches of shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow are noted N of about 18N. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible with these moisture patches. For the forecast, strong trade winds will continue over the central and NE Caribbean Sea, with fresh winds elsewhere over the eastern Caribbean into Sat night. Gale-force winds will pulse at night near the coast of Colombia through the forecast period. Fresh to strong winds will continue in the Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras through Fri night, strongest at night. Looking ahead, a cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel late Sat and reach from central Cuba to central Honduras late Sun. Fresh to locally strong N winds and moderate to rough seas are expected in the wake of the front. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for details about an ongoing Atlantic Swell Significant Swell Event behind a stationary front. A central Atlantic weak cold front is analyzed from near 31N43W southwestward to 25N50W and to 23N59W. A 1029 mb high pressure center N and NW of the front is allowing for generally gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds N and NW of the frontal boundary, except for slighter strong winds of moderate to fresh speeds and NE to E in direction present S of 27N and W of the front to near 55W. Mainly fresh to strong E winds are confined to S of 23N and W of 65W, including the areas of the Turks and Caicos, the Old Bahama Channel, and the Straits of Florida. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are just N of Hispaniola, spreading westward to the northern part of the Windward Passage. Long-period N swell, as described above under Special Features, is driving seas of 9-14 ft toward the coasts of northeast Hispaniola, the north coast of Puerto Rico including the Mona Passage, the area of the Virgin Islands, and adjacent Caribbean passages. Mariners can expect hazardous marine and coastal conditions with these seas. The weather pattern for the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is influenced by high pressure located to the NE and E of the aforementioned front. The pressure gradient between this high and the lower pressures near the ITCZ results in a large area of fresh to strong NE to E winds S of 20N and W of 30W. Seas of 8-10 ft in due to NW swell mixing with NE swell from the wind waves are within the area fresh to strong NE to E winds. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast W of 55W, the earlier described stationary front will weaken through this evening. Large and long period northerly swell, with seas up to 13 ft, are occurring south of 27N and east of the Bahamas. Fresh to strong trade winds are expected through the Bahamas, Straits of Florida, and Windward Passage through Fri night. The next cold front will move off NE Florida by early Sat. A low pressure is expected to develop along the frontal boundary Sat over the NE Gulf of Mexico and move to just off the coast of Georgia by Sat evening. The low will move NE, dragging the cold front across the forecast region Sat night through Mon night. Strong to near gale force winds and rough seas are expected on both sides of the front, mainly N of 27N, with gale force westerly winds likely north of 29N on Sun and Sun night. $$ Mora