000 AXNT20 KNHC 081754 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Feb 8 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING: The surface pressure gradient, that is between the 32N71W 1029 mb Atlantic Ocean high pressure center, and the comparatively lower surface pressures that are in Colombia and Panama, will continue to support pulsing nighttime gale-force winds in the south central Caribbean Sea, near the coast of Colombia, each night through late this week. The sea heights are forecast to range from 9 feet to 13 feet in the areas of the comparatively-fastest wind speeds. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the Offshore Waters Forecasts, at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for more details. Atlantic Ocean SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: A cold front passes through 31N51W to 25N60W, to 22N69W. The front becomes stationary, from 22N69W, to the SE Bahamas near 22N75W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 120 nm to the SE of the cold front from 30N northward. Isolated moderate is within 60 nm on either side of the rest of the frontal boundary. The sea heights have been ranging from 7 feet to 15 feet from the frontal boundary northward. The comparatively highest sea heights are reaching 14 feet and 15 feet from 29N to 30N between 60W and 62W. The sea heights have been ranging from 7 feet to 12 feet from the coast of South America between 40W and 60W northward. The comparatively highest sea heights have been ranging from 9 feet to 12 feet from 06N to 25N from 60W eastward. The sea heights have been at least 8 feet or higher, nearly everywhere from the frontal boundary eastward. Fresh to strong NE winds are from 27N southward from 55W eastward. Fresh to strong southerly winds are from 27N northward between 39W and the cold front. Fresh to strong NE winds are from 26N southward between 66W and 76W. Moderate to fresh winds are from 20N northward between 54W and 65W. Moderate winds or slower are from 26N northward from 64W westward. A 1029 mb high pressure center is near 32N71W. The swell train, with a leading edge period of 16 to 17 seconds, has reached the waters S of 10N. The forecast is for the sea heights to subside to less than 12 feet later today. Another swell event already is propagating through the Atlantic Ocean forecast waters, in the wake of the frontal boundary. This swell event will continue to propagate southward reaching the Bahamas and the Greater Antilles from tonight into Thu. The sea heights are forecast to subside to less than 12 feet on Thursday. These successive sets of NW swell will maintain the sea heights to be greater than 8 feet in most of the Atlantic Ocean forecast waters into the weekend. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia near 07N11W, to 03N17W. The ITCZ continues from 03N17W, crossing the Equator along 30W, to 01S39W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is to the south of the line that runs from Sierra Leone to the coast of French Guiana. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is in the Texas coastal plains, moving toward the NW Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough extends from the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, through the coastal plains of Mexico, to 25N98W in Mexico. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 21N northward from 85W westward. An Atlantic 1029 mb high pressure center is near 32N71W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds cover most of the area. IFR and MVFR conditions are in the Texas coastal plains. Areas of rain also are near the cold front, with the low level clouds. MVFR conditions are in the coastal plains of the U.S.A. from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Clear skies are elsewhere in the Florida coastal plains. The sea heights have been ranging from 4 feet to 6 feet in most of the areas. The exception has been sea heights that have been ranging from 6 feet to 8 feet in the SE Gulf, with the fresh E winds that have been in the Straits of Florida. Marine fog is occurring this morning within 20 nm of the Louisiana and Texas coasts, reducing visibility to less than 1 nm in some areas. Fresh SE winds will continue today across the eastern two-thirds of the Gulf of Mexico as a cold front enters the western Gulf during the early afternoon. The front will reach from the coast of Mississippi to the south central Bay of Campeche Thu morning before weakening and dissipating Thu night. The coastal fog should dissipate after the frontal passage. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are likely to develop ahead of and along the front this afternoon through this evening over the NW Gulf. The line of storms will move E to the north central Gulf during the overnight hours and into Thu morning. Frequent lightning and strong wind gusts are possible with the storms. Fresh to strong northerly winds will briefly follow this front over the west-central Gulf this afternoon into tonight. A stronger cold front will enter the NW Gulf late Thu night or early Fri morning, reach from Apalachicola, FL to the eastern Bay of Campeche by Fri evening, and move across the Yucatan Channel by Sat evening. Northerly gale force winds are likely near Tampico, Mexico Fri afternoon, and offshore Veracruz, Mexico Fri afternoon through early Sat. Gales could also persist over the central Bay of Campeche into Sat morning. Very rough seas are expected in the wake of the front, especially over the SW Gulf. Winds and seas will gradually diminish from W to E on Sun, as high pressure builds across the region. CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning remains in effect for the coastal waters of Colombia. Gale-force NE winds are within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia between 73W and 77W. The sea heights have been ranging from 9 feet to 10 feet in the central one-third of the Caribbean Sea. The comparatively highest sea heights have been ranging from 12 feet to 13 feet near the coast of Colombia in the areas of the gale-force wind speeds. Please, read the Special Features section for more details. NE mostly strong to some gale-force winds are in the central one-third of the Caribbean Sea. The sea heights have been ranging from 9 feet to 10 feet in the Atlantic Ocean side of the islands of the eastern Caribbean Sea. The sea heights have been ranging from 5 feet to 7 feet in the eastern one-third of the area. Fresh to locally strong winds have been in the Windward Passage, between Jamaica and eastern Cuba, and in the lee of Cuba. The sea heights have been ranging from 8 feet to 9 feet in the Windward Passage and between Jamaica and eastern Cuba. The sea heights have been reaching 8 feet in the Gulf of Honduras, and they have been ranging from 5 feet to 7 feet elsewhere. Areas of shallow moisture, that are embedded in the trade wind flow, are moving through the area. Expect isolated to widely scattered passing rainshowers. The western end of the Atlantic Ocean stationary front reaches the SE Bahamas. The comparatively most intense precipitation with the greatest amount of coverage is happening from Jamaica toward the Yucatan Channel. Strong trade winds will continue over the central Caribbean Sea, with fresh winds elsewhere over the eastern Caribbean through Sat. Gale-force winds will pulse at night near the coast of Colombia through the forecast period. Fresh to strong winds will continue in the Windward Passage, lee of Cuba and Gulf of Honduras through late this week, strongest at night. Strong easterly winds will also pulse off southern Hispaniola and occasionally in the eastern Caribbean through Sat. Looking ahead, a cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel on Sat and move across the NW Caribbean through Sun. Fresh to strong N winds and moderate to rough seas are expected in the wake of the front. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the ATLANTIC OCEAN SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT. Moderate winds or slower are from 26N northward from 64W westward. A 1029 mb high pressure center is near 32N71W. The rest of the information that is about the sea heights and the wind speeds is in the SPECIAL FEATURES section. A cold front extends from 31N51W to 22N69W, where it becomes stationary to near the Turks and Caicos Islands. The front will remain nearly stationary along 22N-23N through Thu evening while weakening. Large and long period northerly swell, with seas to near 18 ft follow the front. This swell event will continue to propagate across the forecast waters reaching the Bahamas and the Greater Antilles tonight into Thu. Fresh to strong trade winds are expected through the Bahamas, Straits of Florida and Windward Passage through late week. Looking ahead, the next cold front will move off NE Florida late Fri night. A low pressure may develop along the frontal boundary just off the coast of Georgia by Sat evening. The low will move NE dragging the cold front across the forecast region Sat night into Sun night. Strong to near gale force winds and rough seas are expected on both sides of the front, mainly N of 27N. $$ mt/ah