000 AXNT20 KNHC 071044 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Feb 7 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: High pressure north of the area combined with the Colombian low will continue to support pulsing gale-force winds in the south- central Caribbean, near the coast of Colombia through late week. Seas will peak to 13 or 14 ft during the strongest winds. A recent scatterometer pass confirmed the presence of minimal gale force winds near the coast of Colombia. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Atlantic Ocean Swell Event: Long period NW swell combined with NE wind wave is producing a large area of 12 to 14 ft seas roughly across the waters from 18N to 24N between 35W and 55W. The swell train, with a leading edge period of 16 to 18 seconds, is reaching the waters E of the Leeward Islands. This swell event will continue to propagate across the Atlantic waters between 35W and 55W today, with seas gradually subsiding below 12 ft by this evening. However, large northerly swell, generated by a low pressure with hurricane-force winds in the NW Atlantic, is currently reaching the forecast waters. Seas will build to near 18 ft by Wed morning behind a cold front extending from 31N50W to the SE Bahamas. Seas will drop below 12 ft on Thu. Seas 8 ft or greater will continue to dominate most of the Atlantic forecast waters this work-week. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 01N19W. The ITCZ extends from 01N19W to 01N30W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N to 05N between between 15W and 19W, and from the equator to 03N between 22W and 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the Gulf waters producing moderate to fresh SE to S winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft over the western Gulf, and gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft over the eastern Gulf. A surface trough is analyzed just W of the Yucatan peninsula. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the SE Gulf. Patches of low level clouds are elsewhere moving northward under the southerly flow. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the above mentioned ridge and lower pressures over Texas and NE Mexico will support fresh to locally strong SE to S winds over the western Gulf today, with fresh winds spreading to the remainder of the Gulf through Wed, when another cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas will briefly follow the front that will stall over the western Gulf on Thu while dissipating. A stronger cold front will enter the NW Gulf Thu evening, reach from the Florida Big Bend to Veracruz, Mexico Fri evening, and exit the basin by Sat morning. Gale conditions are possible near Tampico, Mexico early Fri afternoon, and near Veracruz, Mexico during the early evening hours. Rough to very rough seas are also expected in the wake of the front, especially over the SW Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning remains in effect for the coastal waters of Colombia. Please, read the Special Features section for more details. Recent satellite derived wind data provided observations of minimal gale force winds near the coast of Colombia, with fresh to strong winds blowing across the remainder of the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh NE winds are in the lee of eastern Cuba, and also across the rest of the east and central Caribbean. Seas are 8 to 12 ft over the south-central Caribbean, with the highest seas near the coast of Colombia. Seas of 5 to 7 ft dominate the remainder of the east and central Caribbean, with seas in the 3 to 5 ft range in the NW Caribbean. Pockets of shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow are moving across the area producing isolated to scattered passing showers, more concentrated between Haiti and Jamaica, and in the Gulf of Honduras. For the forecast, strong trade winds will continue over the south-central Caribbean Sea, with fresh winds elsewhere over the eastern and central Caribbean through the forecast period. Minimal gale-force winds will pulse at night near the coast of Colombia during the majority of the forecast period. Seas will build to 12 or 13 ft during the strongest winds. Winds will increase in the Windward Passage, lee of Cuba and Gulf of Honduras later today through late this week, pulsing to strong at night. Strong easterly winds will also pulse off southern Hispaniola and occasionally in the eastern Caribbean through the forecast period. Looking ahead, a cold front will approach the Yucatan Channel on Sat morning, and move across the NW Caribbean through Sun morning. Fresh to strong N winds and moderate to rough seas are expected in the wake of the front. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A swell event, with seas 12 ft or greater, is propagating across the Atlantic forecast waters between 35W and 55W. Please, read the Special Features section for more details about these hazardous marine conditions. A cold front enters the forecast region near 31N62W, and continues SW to near the Turks and Caicos Islands. A band of showers and thunderstorms is related to the front N of 24N. A few showers are noted between the SE Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. Cold air stratocumulus clouds follow the front. The most recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong winds on either side of the front N of 29N, with seas of 8 to 12 ft. Moderate to fresh NE winds are seen across the Bahamas into the Straits of Florida. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters are under the influence of a 1043 mb high pressure located N of the Azores. The pressure gradient between this high and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ is resulting in a large area of fresh to strong NE to E winds S of 26N and E of 55W. Seas of 9 to 14 ft in NW swell are within these winds. Several altimeter passes confirmed these sea heights. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will reach from 31N54W to 23N65W by this evening, and from 31N48W to 22N65W by Wed evening. Fresh to strong wind will persist N of 28N on either side of the front through tonight. Large swell will propagate across the forecast waters E of the Bahamas through late week. Fresh to strong trade winds are expected through the Bahamas, Straits of Florida and Windward Passage late today through late week. Looking ahead, the next cold front will move off NE Florida Fri night with fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas on both sides of the front. $$ GR