000 AXNT20 KNHC 030604 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Feb 3 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING: The surface pressure gradient, that is between the western Atlantic Ocean subtropical ridge, and the comparatively lower surface pressures that are in Colombia and Panama, will continue to support pulsing minimal gale-force winds in the south central Caribbean Sea, near the coast of Colombia, each night through Thursday night. The sea heights are forecast to range from 9 feet to 11 feet in the areas of the comparatively-fastest wind speeds. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the Offshore Waters Forecasts, at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for more details. Gulf of Mexico GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING: Expect gale-force winds to start in the SW Gulf of Mexico, off the coast of Veracruz in Mexico, during the next few hours, and to end on Friday night, from 19N to 21N between 95W and 97W. A cold front currently extends from the north central Gulf of Mexico, into the central Gulf, to the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. The sea heights are forecast to range from 10 feet to 12 feet. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia near 06N11W, to 05N14W. The ITCZ continues from 05N14W, to 03N19W, crossing the Equator along 23W, to 02S27W 01S37W, crossing the Equator along 38W, to 03N42W, 02N46W 04N50W 06N54W 07N55W, to 06N57W at the coasts of Guyana and Suriname. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 10N southward from 60W eastward. The comparatively highest concentration of precipitation is from 05N southward between 12W and 23W, and from 06N southward between 30W and 44W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING covers the waters of the SW Gulf of Mexico from 19N to 21N between 95W and 97W, offshore Veracruz in Mexico. Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more details. A cold front reaches from SE Louisiana, into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico near 19N96W. The front continues as stationary, toward the northwest in Mexico, from 19N96W to 28N103W. Broken to overcast low level clouds and areas of rain are to the north and northwest of the cold front. LIFR and IFR conditions, and some areas of rain, are in the coastal plains of the U.S.A. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 7 feet from the cold front westward. The sea heights range from 1 foot to 3 feet elsewhere in the Gulf of Mexico. Strong to near gale-force winds are within 180 nm of land from the Deep South of Texas to 20N. Fresh winds are from the cold front northward and northwestward, from 27N northward. Gentle to moderate winds are in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. A cold front extending from low pressure over southern Louisiana to Veracruz will move across the Gulf through Fri. NW to N winds to gale force and very rough seas will follow the front over the far southwest Gulf off the coast of Veracruz starting early Fri morning and persist through the remainder of the day. Fresh to strong N winds and moderate to rough seas will follow elsewhere through Fri. Winds and seas will diminish from west to east through Sat night across the Gulf as high pressure builds in the wake of the front. Conditions will be quiescent across the Gulf Sat night through Mon morning. Looking ahead, expect fresh to strong S to SE return flow across the W Gulf on Mon and Tue. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING, that has been issued for the coastal waters of Colombia. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, and it is covering the entire Caribbean Sea. Any precipitation is related to clusters of scattered to broken low level clouds that are in the trade wind flow. Strong winds are in the central one-third of the Caribbean Sea. Gentle to moderate NE winds are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 8 feet in the central one-third of the area. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Strong to near-gale NE winds will persist off the coast of Colombia through Sat night, pulsing to minimal gale force tonight. Fresh to strong E trades will persist in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola into tonight as well. A cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico will reach the northwest Caribbean Fri night and dissipate Sat. Moderate to fresh E trades are expected elsewhere through Sat. Looking ahead, building high pressure to the north will strengthen the easterly trade winds across the eastern and central Caribbean and tropical Atlantic Sun through Tue. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is along 25N43W 24N35W. A 1017 mb low pressure is along the surface trough near 25N39W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 450 nm to the east of the eastern half of the surface trough. Upper level winds are blowing high level moisture toward the northeast, through the areas that are to the south and the southeast of the line 27N14W 25N28W 20N46W 10N60W. Moderate to fresh winds, and moderate sea heights, are in the area of the low pressure center and the surface trough. A 1022 mb high pressure center is near 26N66W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 45W westward in the Atlantic Ocean. Moderate NE to E winds are south of 22N and west of 65W. Fresh to strong winds are moving into and through the Windward Passage. The sea heights in these areas are ranging from 5 feet to 7 feet. Light to gentle winds, and sea heights that range from 4 feet to 6 feet, are in the rest of the area that is from 55W westward. The exception is locally moderate winds that are offshore northern Florida, in advance of a cold front that is off the Carolinas. Gentle to moderate winds, and sea heights that range from 4 feet to 5 feet, are in the north central Atlantic ocean, toward 21N35W, in mainly NE swell. Moderate to fresh NE winds, and sea heights that range from 4 feet to 7 feet, cover much of the rest of the Atlantic Ocean. Ridging along 26N is supporting moderate to fresh E winds south of 22N, with strong winds near the entrance to the Windward Passage, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. The ridge will shift east tonight, allowing SW winds to increase up to strong or near-gale between NE Florida and Bermuda ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will move off the NE Florida coast Fri afternoon and will reach Sat morning from 31N59W to S Florida. On Sun morning, the boundary will begin lifting northward as a warm front, ahead of another cold front moving off the NE Florida coast Sun night. The second cold front will reach from Bermuda to eastern Cuba by Mon afternoon, then start to stall from 31N55W to and from 31N60W to 25N60W by Tue afternoon. $$ mt/ec