000 AXNT20 KNHC 020952 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Feb 2 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic and lower pressure over northern Colombia will support pulsing minimal gale force winds off the coast of Colombia early this morning and again tonight. Seas will peak at 10 to 11 ft with the strongest winds. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Expect winds to gale force along with very rough seas off the coast of Veracruz from early Fri morning through Fri evening, following a cold front sweeping across the Gulf. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N11W to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to 01N25W to 02N38W to 20S42W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 00N to 03N between 20W and 30W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the southwest Gulf waters offshore Veracruz, Mexico. Please see the Special Features section above for more details. A stationary front extends from near Panama City, Florida to weak 1019 mb low pressure in the northwest Gulf near 27N94W, then southward to Poza Rica, Mexico. Moderate to fresh winds are evident off the Texas and Tamaulipas coastlines, west of the front, with 4 to 6 ft seas. Gentle to moderate winds and 2 to 4 ft wave heights are evident elsewhere. Light and moist return flow persists across the Big Bend region of Florida, resulting in the formation of dense fog across the area. A dense fog advisory is in effect through 17 UTC for the waters across most of the Florida panhandle. Mariners should exercise caution. No other significant weather is evident. For the forecast, the low pressure over the northwest Gulf will move to the Carolinas through tonight. A trailing cold front will sweep across the Gulf through late Fri. Winds to gale force and very rough seas will follow the front over the far southwest Gulf off the coast of Veracruz starting early Fri morning and persist through the remainder of the day. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas will follow elsewhere through Fri. Winds and seas will diminish from west to east through late Sat across the Gulf as high pressure builds in the wake of the front. Looking ahead, expect fresh southerly return flow across the northwest Gulf by late Mon. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning remains in effect near the coast of Colombia. Please see the Special Features section above for more details. The subtropical ridge north of the Caribbean Sea sustains fresh to strong easterly trade winds across the Windward Passage and the central Caribbean Sea. The strongest winds are occurring off the higher coastal terrain of Colombia, with 8 to 10 ft wave heights. Gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the strong to near-gale NE winds will persist off the coast of Colombia through Sat night, pulsing to minimal gale force tonight. Fresh to strong easterly trades will persist in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola into tonight as well. Moderate to fresh trades are expected elsewhere through Sat. Looking ahead, strong to near-gale force winds will continue to pulse off Colombia Sun and Mon, with light breezes over the northwest Caribbean, and fresh trades elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The subtropical ridge centered near the NW Bahamas sustains moderate NE to E winds south of 22N and west of 65W, with fresh winds possible near the Windward Passage entrance. Seas in these waters are 5-7 ft. Elsewhere west of 55W, light to gentle flow prevails. A very broad area of surface troughing extends over the central Atlantic, south of 25N between 45W and 55W, supporting gentle breezes and moderate seas in this area. Showers and a few thunderstorms persist along another trough oriented east to west along 25N between 35W and 45W. Fresh E to SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are evident north of this trough. Moderate to fresh NE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere east of 35W. For the forecast west of 55W, the high pressure along 27N will shift east through tonight, allowing SW winds to increase tonight between northeast Florida and Bermuda ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast Fri, reach from Bermuda to east- central Florida late Fri night, then stall from 31N55W to the northwest Bahamas and South Florida Sat. Looking ahead, the front will lift northward Sat night ahead of another cold front moving off the northeast Florida coast Sun. The second front will reach from Bermuda to central Cuba by late Mon. $$ Christensen