000 AXNT20 KNHC 012351 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Feb 1 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2305 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic and lower pressure over northern Colombia. This pattern will continue to support pulsing minimal gale force winds off the coast of Colombia tonight and Thu night. Seas will peak at 10 to 12 ft with the strongest winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: An area of low pressure has developed along a frontal boundary over the NW Gulf near 27N95W. A surge of cold air will push the cold front across the Gulf of Mexico on Thu. The front will reach from the Florida Big Bend to near Veracruz, Mexico, by early Fri morning. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas will follow the front, reaching gale force offshore Veracruz, Mexico, on Friday morning. Seas are forecast to build 14-16 ft over the SW Gulf with the strongest winds. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains mostly confined to the African continent, reaching the Atlantic through the coast Liberia near 05N09W to 05N11W. The ITCZ extends from 05N11W to 01N30W to 01S45W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from south of 05N and west of 18W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the southwest Gulf waters offshore Veracruz, Mexico. Please see the Special Features section above for more details. A stationary front extends from the coast of Alabama to a 1019 mb low pressure system near 27N95W. A cold front extends from the low center to the coast of Veracruz near 21N97W. A few showers are evident near the frontal boundary and low pressure but deep convection is associated with the shower activity. A weak high pressure regime dominates the remainder of the basin. Fresh to strong northerly winds are found behind the frontal boundary, along with seas of 4-8 ft. Moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds and seas of 2-4 ft prevail in the rest of the Gulf. Light and moist return flow is expected across the Big Bend region of Florida tonight through Thu morning, resulting in the formation of dense fog across the area. A dense fog advisory is in effect through Thu at 15Z for the waters across most of the Florida panhandle. Mariners should exercise caution. For the forecast, low pressure has developed along a frontal boundary over the NW Gulf near 27N95W. This system will move toward SE Louisiana on Thu, dragging the associated cold front across the Gulf waters. The front will reach from the Florida Big Bend to the central Bay of Campeche by early Fri morning, and move across the far SE Gulf and the Yucatan Channel by early Sat morning. Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow the front, reaching gale force offshore Veracruz, Mexico on Fri. Seas are forecast to build to 14-16 ft over the SW Gulf with the strongest winds. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish from W to E across the basin Fri night into Sat as high pressure builds over the region. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning remains in effect near the coast of Colombia. Please see the Special Features section above for more details. A 1023 mb high pressure system near the NW Bahamas continues to dominate the Caribbean Sea, maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions, except for a few patches of low-level moisture. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures over NW South America result in fresh to strong NE-E winds in the central Caribbean Sea, with the strongest winds occurring off NW Colombia. Seas in these waters are 6-10 ft, with the highest seas occurring off NW Colombia. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds are also found in the Gulf of Honduras, along with seas of 3-5 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere in the basin. For the forecast, strong NE winds will persist off the coast of Colombia through Sat night. These winds will pulse to minimal gale force at night through Thu night. Fresh to strong easterly trades will persist in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola through Thu night as well. Moderate to fresh trades are expected elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The subtropical ridge centered near the NW Bahamas sustains moderate NE to E winds south of 22N and west of 65W, with fresh winds possible near the Windward Passage entrance. Seas in these waters are 5-7 ft. Elsewhere west of 55W, light to gentle flow prevails. A surface trough is located offshore NE FL supporting slightly stronger moderate breezes north of 29N. A very broad area of surface troughing extends over the central Atlantic, between 45W and 65W, with the main trough axis reaching from 27N53W to 16N60W. A tightened pressure gradient between the trough and a ridge north of the area supports moderate to fresh E winds north of 25N, between 30W and 45W. This results in an area of 6-9 ft seas in NE swell north of about 23N between 34W and 47W. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds are evident south of 24N and east of 48W. Seas in the waters described are 4-7 ft. Farther north and east, a surface trough extends offshore Western Sahara supporting an area of fresh to strong SE-E winds east of 14W near the Canary Islands where seas are 6-9 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, the high pressure along 28N is supporting moderate to fresh winds south of 22N, with strong wind near the entrance to the Windward Passage, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. The high pressure will shift east through Thu night as a weak cold front stalls along 30N. Looking ahead, SW winds are likely to increase Thu night and Fri between northeast Florida and Bermuda ahead of another cold front. The cold front will move into the region Fri morning, and from 31n50w to the NW Bahamas Sat morning, then lift north of the area Sun ahead of another cold front expected to move off the northeast Florida coast late Sun night. $$ DELGADO