000 AXNT20 KNHC 011754 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Feb 1 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic and lower pressure over northern Colombia. This pattern will continue to support pulsing minimal gale force winds off the coast of Colombia tonight and Thu night. Seas will peak at 10 to 12 ft with the strongest winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: An area of low pressure has developed along a frontal boundary over the NW Gulf near 27N95W. A surge of cold air will push the cold front across the Gulf of Mexico on Thu. The front will reach from the Florida Big Bend to near Veracruz, Mexico, by early Fri morning. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas will follow the front, reaching gale force offshore Veracruz, Mexico, on Friday morning. Seas are forecast to build 14-16 ft over the SW Gulf with the strongest winds. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends about 90 nm from the coast of Liberia to near 05N10W. The ITCZ continues from 05N10W to 04N20W to 01N30W to 00N40W to the coast of South America near 01S45W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from the equator to 04N between 20W and 35W. Scattered moderate convection is noted offshore Brazil from 01S to 05N between 45W and 51W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the southwest Gulf waters offshore Veracruz, Mexico. Please see the Special Features section above for more details. Low pressure has developed along what was a stationary front over the NW Gulf near 27N95W. A cold front now extends south of the low to near Poza Rica, Mexico. Moderate to fresh NE winds were noted in a recent scatterometer pass off the TX and LA coastal waters, while fresh to strong N to NW winds are behind the cold front offshore Mexico with 6 to 8 ft seas. A warm front extends NE of the low to 29N90W near Port Fourchon, LA, then continues as a cold front to near Panama City, FL. Coastal observations continue to report dense marine fog along the coasts of AL, MS, and LA with patchy fog offshore TX. Mariners should continue to exercise caution. Elsewhere over the Gulf, moderate E-SE winds are west of 90W ahead of the front, while gentle breezes are east of 90W, with 2 to 4 ft seas over the basin. For the forecast, patchy coastal fog may persist in some parts of the northern Gulf through tonight. Meanwhile, the low will move toward SE Louisiana on Thu, dragging the cold front across the Gulf waters. The front will reach from the Florida Big Bend to near Veracruz, Mexico, by early Fri morning. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas will follow the front, reaching gale force offshore Veracruz, Mexico on Fri. Seas are forecast to build 14-16 ft over the SW Gulf with the strongest winds. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish from W to E across the basin Fri night into Sat as high pressure builds over the region. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning remains in effect near the coast of Colombia. Please see the Special Features section above for more details. The subtropical ridge north of the Caribbean Sea sustains fresh to strong easterly trade winds across the central Caribbean Sea, including the Windward Passage, where seas are 6 to 9 ft. The strongest winds are occurring off the higher coastal terrain of Colombia, where seas are up to 11 ft this morning and within 120 nm south of Hispaniola, where seas are 6 to 10 ft. Moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, strong NE winds will persist off the coast of Colombia through Sat night. Fresh to strong easterly trades will persist in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola through Thu night. Moderate to fresh trades are expected elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1025 mb high pressure centered off the northern Bahamas near 28N75W supports moderate NE to E winds south of 22N and west of 60W, with fresh winds possible near the Windward Passage entrance where seas are 6 to 7 ft. Elsewhere west of 55W, light to gentle flow prevails. A surface trough is located offshore NE FL supporting slightly stronger moderate breezes north of 29N. A very broad area of surface troughing extends over the central Atlantic, between 45W and 65W, with the main trough axis reaching from 36N48W to 16N60W. A tightened pressure gradient between the trough and a ridge north of the area supports moderate to fresh E winds north of 25N between 30W and 42W. This results in an area of 6 to 9 ft seas in NE swell north of about 23N between 34W and 47W. Fresh NE winds are also noted in the far east Atl between the west coast of Africa to 25W, south of 22N to the Cape Verde Islands, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds are elsewhere south of 15N over the deep tropics where seas continue to be 6 to 8 ft. Farther north and east, a surface trough extends offshore Western Sahara supporting an area of fresh to strong SE-E winds east of 14W near the Canary Islands where seas are 6 to 9 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, the high pressure NE of the Bahamas will shift east through Thu night as a weak cold front stalls along 30N. Looking ahead, SW winds will likely increase Thu night and Fri between northeast Florida and Bermuda ahead of another cold front. The cold front will move into the region Fri, stall from 31N55W to the northern Bahamas Sat, then lift north of the area Sun ahead of another cold front expected to move off the northeast Florida coast late Sun night. $$ Mora