000 AXNT20 KNHC 010556 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Feb 01 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING: The surface pressure gradient, that is between the western Atlantic Ocean subtropical ridge, and the comparatively lower surface pressures that are in Colombia and Panama, will continue to support pulsing minimal gale-force winds in the south central Caribbean Sea, near the coast of Colombia, each night through Thursday night. The sea heights are forecast to range from 8 feet to 11 feet in the areas of the comparatively-fastest wind speeds. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the Offshore Waters Forecasts, at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains inland in Africa. The ITCZ extends from the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 05N09W, through the Equator along 17W, to 01S23W and 01S33W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 05N southward from 30W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front passes through the central coastal sections of Louisiana, to the coast of Mexico near 23N98W, and then northwestward beyond the Texas Big Bend. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate rainshowers, are to the west of the line that passes through the coast of Louisiana along 90W, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Fresh to strong northerly winds are from the stationary front northward and northwestward. Moderate and slower wind speeds cover the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. The southern part of a surface trough passes through the Gulf of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, northeastward, to the Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate rainshowers, are to the south of 23N from 90W westward. Broad anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico from 90W eastward. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet from 90W westward, and they range from 2 feet to 4 feet elsewhere. Light onshore winds and abundant low level moisture are allowing for some areas of dense fog, in the the coastal plains and in the coastal waters, from the coast of west central Florida to Texas. The visibilities are less than one mile with fog in some cases, and ranging from 3 miles to 5 miles or less, in the other cases. The marine conditions will improve throughout the afternoon of today on Wednesday. Dense fog is expected to return during the overnight hours and morning hours, through Wednesday night. A stationary front from the western Louisiana coast to near Barra del Tordo, Mexico will remain in place into Thu, before a surge of cold air moves south into the Gulf, pushing the front across the basin through Fri. Fresh to strong N winds can be expected behind the front, with gales Fri offshore Veracruz, Mexico. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish Sat across the basin as high pressure builds over the region. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING that has been issued for the coastal waters of Colombia. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, covering the entire Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh NE winds are in the SW corner. Fresh to strong NE winds are within 240 nm to the south of Hispaniola, including moving through the Mona Passage. Gentle to moderate winds are in the NW corner. Gentle to moderate winds have been in the SE corner. Moderate to fresh winds have been in the NE corner. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 11 feet from 17N southward between 68W and 80W. The sea heights of 11 feet are closer to the coast of Colombia near 77W. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 6 feet in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Strong NE winds will persist off the coast of Colombia through Sat night. These winds will pulse to and gale force late evening to early morning hours through Thu night. Fresh to strong easterly trades will persist in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola through Thu night as well. Moderate to fresh trades are expected elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A dissipating cold front passes through 31N63W, to 28N68W, to 30N73W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 300 nm on either side of the dissipating cold front. A surface trough is along 02N47W 10N51W 20N53W 30N53W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate to strong is from 02N southward between 44W and Brazil. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 540 nm to the east of the surface trough from 06N to 12N. Isolated moderate is elsewhere within 500 nm on either side of the surface trough, mostly to the east of the surface trough. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 10 feet within 450 nm to 900 nm to the east of the surface trough from 14N southward. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 8 feet within 180 nm on either side of the surface trough from 23N northward. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 10 feet from 25N northward between 27W and 47W. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 8 feet within 300 nm to the ENE of the Cabo Verde Islands, and within 300 nm to the ENE of the eastern part of the Dominican Republic. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 9 feet in some of the areas that are from 30N northward from 30W eastward. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 6 feet in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Moderate to fresh NE winds are within 300 nm to the west of Africa from 12N to 25N. Moderate to fresh NE-to-E winds are from 23N northward between 26W and 40W. Moderate NE-to-E winds are from 23N southward from 66W westward. Fresh NE winds are within 60 nm of the northern coast of Hispaniola between 70W and 73W. Fresh NE winds are moving through the Mona Passage. Moderate wind speeds or slower are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. High pressure along 28N is supporting moderate to fresh winds south of 22N, with strong wind near the entrance to the Windward Passage, and gentle breezes elsewhere. The high pressure will shift east through Thu night as a weak cold front stalls along 30N. Looking ahead, SW winds are likely to increase Thu night and Fri between northeast Florida and Bermuda ahead of another cold front. The cold front will move into the region Fri and reach from 31N55W to the northern Bahamas by late Sat. $$ mt/ec