000 AXNT20 KNHC 302301 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Jan 31 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2235 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic and the Colombian/Panamanian low will continue to support pulsing minimal gale force winds over the south-central Caribbean, near the coast of Colombia each night through Thu. Seas will peak at 10 to 12 ft with the strongest winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the Offshore Waters Forecasts at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 07N15W. The ITCZ continues from 07N15W to 02N30W to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered moderate convection is south of the monsoon trough from the equator to 05N from 07W to 13W. Isolated moderate convection is noted south of 06N and west of 21W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak stationary front extends from southern Louisiana to southern Texas. A line of showers and isolated thunderstorms is noted near the frontal boundary in the NW Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds are evident behind the stationary front, along with seas of 2-4 FT. Moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds and seas of 2-4 ft prevail in the remainder of the basin. Another stationary front is lingering parallel to the northern Gulf coast over land. Light onshore winds combined with abundant moisture are allowing for dense fog, decreasing visibility within 30 nm of the coastline along the north-central Gulf coast. Marine conditions will improve throughout the afternoon. Dense fog is expected to return during the overnight and morning hours through Wednesday. For the forecast, a stationary front just offshore the Texas and Louisiana coast will remain stalled into Wed night, before another push of cold air transitions the front to a cold front by Thu. This front will then move E across the Gulf through Fri, bringing fresh to strong N winds in its wake. Gales are expected offshore Veracruz, Mexico, behind the front, Fri. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning remains in effect near the coast of Colombia. Please see the Special Features section above for more details. Patches of shallow moisture are moving across the Caribbean Sea, resulting in isolated to scattered weak showers. No deep convection is present across the basin. Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong ENE winds and seas at 6-9 ft are found at the central basin, including the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola. Moderate with locally fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 4-7 ft prevail for the rest of the basin. For the forecast, strong ENE winds will persist off the coast of Colombia into Fri. These winds will pulse to and gale force late evening to early morning hours. Fresh to strong easterly trades will persist in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola into Thu night. Moderate to fresh trades are expected elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The frontal system over the SE United States stretches into the western waters of the Atlantic Ocean, supporting moderate to fresh westerly winds north of 30N and between 75W and 80W. Seas are 4-5 ft in the waters described. Farther east, a surface trough is along 53W, extending from 17N to 31N, and no deep convection is seen near the trough axis. The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge near Bermuda and the surface trough sustain moderate to NE winds within 300 nm on both sides of a line from 31N54 to Puerto Rico. Seas in these waters are 7-10 ft, with the highest near 30N54W. In the remainder of the western Atlantic, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. To the east of the surface trough, moderate to fresh trades are found north of 25N and east of 50W. Seas are 5-8 ft in the waters described. Similar winds are noted south of 17N and east of 47W, along with seas of 6-10 ft, with the highest occurring near 10N39W. A 1015 mb low pressure is located near 22N33W, allowing for the fresh winds NE of the low. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure centered N of the area will support fresh E winds and higher seas S of 25N tonight, before weakening, allowing winds and seas to diminish Tue. A weak cold front will reach along 30N on Tue, then meander in the vicinity into late week. SW winds may increase Thu night and Fri for waters offshore NE Florida, ahead of another cold front. $$ DELGADO