000
AXNT20 KNHC 300533
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Jan 30 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning:

The pressure gradient between high pressure over the western 
Atlantic and the Colombian/Panamanian low will continue to support
pulsing minimal gale force winds over the south-central 
Caribbean, near the coast of Colombia each night through much of 
the week. Seas will build to 10 to 12 ft with the strongest winds.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean along the coast of
Liberia 05N10W, and extends to 02N15W. The ITCZ continues from 
02N15W to 02S43W. No significant convection is evident across the
Atlantic basin currently.

...GULF OF MEXICO... 

High pressure prevails across the Gulf waters. Fresh to locally
strong E winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are evident over the Straits of
Florida. Moderate SE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are evident
elsewhere, except over the northwest Gulf where 4 to 6 ft linger
from earlier fresh SE winds. No significant shower or
thunderstorm activity is evident currently.

For the forecast, a weak cold front will approach the coast of 
Texas on Mon morning, enter the northwestern Gulf Tue morning, 
then remain nearly stationary on Wed. A second push of cold air 
will allow the front to finally move across the Gulf on Thu, 
reaching from near New Orleans to near Veracruz, Mexico by Thu 
night. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas will 
follow the front. On Fri, winds could increase to gale force in 
the Veracruz area. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning remains in effect near the coast of Colombia. 
Please see the Special Features section above for more details.

Fresh to strong winds prevail over the central Caribbean where
wave heights are reaching 8 to 11 ft, and Windward Passage where 
5 to 7 ft seas persist. A small area of fresh to locally strong E
winds are noted south of Hispaniola. Moderate to fresh NE to E
winds are evident elsewhere with 3 to 5 ft seas.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds will persist off 
the coast of Colombia through at least Thu. These winds will pulse
to between near-gale and gale force late evening to early morning
hours, including tonight. Fresh to strong easterly trades will 
persist in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola through 
Thu. Moderate to fresh trades are expected elsewhere. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Fresh to strong NE winds and 8 to 10 ft wave heights are evident
between a trough along 45W north of 20N, and 1036 mb high pressure
over the north-central Atlantic. This pattern is also supporting
fresh E winds and 5 to 7 ft wave heights south of 22N west of 60W.
Gentle breezes are evident near the trough, mainly from 15N to 30N
between 35W and 50W. Farther south into the deep tropics, fresh 
to strong NE to E winds and 8 to 10 ft wave heights are noted 
south of 15N between 25W and 45W. Moderate NE to E winds and 4 to 
6 ft seas are noted elsewhere. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the strong high pressure over the 
western Atlantic will continue to support fresh to strong 
easterly winds and building seas across the waters south of 25N, 
including the Bahamas, Great Bahama Bank, the approach to the 
Windward Passage and the Atlantic waters of Puerto Rico through 
Mon afternoon. A weak cold front is forecast to move off the 
Georgia and Carolinas coast Mon, then track westward through Tue, 
reaching from 31N61W to 25N67W by Tue night. Afterward, a second 
cold front will move off northeastern Florida by late Wed.

$$
Christensen