000 AXNT20 KNHC 281723 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Jan 28 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Large Swell: The pressure gradient between the 1012 mb low pressure located near 28N43W and 1042 mb high pressure over the northeastern Atlantic continues to support a large area of fresh to strong winds in the NE quadrant of the low center based on recent satellite derived wind data. Gusty winds to gale force are still probably occurring. Large swell generated by this system continues to propagate across the Atlantic forecast waters, with seas of 10 to 14 ft covering mainly the area N of 25N and E of 50W. This swell event is also affecting parts of the eastern Atlantic basin. Winds and seas will gradually diminish this evening as the low weakens further. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between high pressure over the western Atlantic and the Colombian/Panamanian low will continue to support pulsing minimal gale force winds over the south-central Caribbean, near the coast of Colombia tonight and Sun night. Seas will build to 10 to 12 ft with the strongest winds. Marine conditions will improve slightly during the day. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Sierra Leone, then continues SW to near 05N20W. The ITCZ axis extents from 05N20W to 02N30W to the equator at 50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 02N between 14W and 23W. Similar convection is seen from 01N to 04W between 30W and 36W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends across the Gulf waters from a 1031 mb high pressure located over southern Georgia. This system is producing fresh to locally strong easterly winds over the Straits of Florida and the southern Gulf where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Higher seas in the 8 to 9 ft range are noted in the Yucatan Channel per altimeter data. The pressure gradient between the western periphery of the high and lower pressures over Texas supports fresh to locally strong southerly return flow over the western Gulf with seas in the 5 to 7 ft range. Gentle to moderate easterly winds with 3 to 5 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf. Satellite pictures show abundant cloudiness, with possible showers across much of the Gulf region. For the forecast, a high pressure shifting eastward across the Gulf States into the western Atlantic will sustain fresh to locally strong easterly winds across the the southern Gulf until this evening, and in the Straits of Florida through Sun. Fresh to strong southerly winds are also expected over the northwestern and west-central Gulf into Sun morning, ahead of a cold front forecast to enter the northern Gulf Sun. The front will then stall and dissipate by Mon night. Afterward, gentle to moderate easterly winds will prevail for the entire Gulf into late week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning remains in effect near the coast of Colombia. Please see the Special Features section above for more details. Recent scatterometer data provide observations of fresh to strong NE to E winds in the lee of east-central Cuba, between Jamaica and Cuba, and just W of Jamaica, and also over the south-central central Caribbean, and south of Dominican Republic. Seas are near 8 ft in the Windward Passage based on an altimeter pass. Seas of 8 to 12 ft are over the south-central Caribbean, and 8 to 9 ft N of 15N and S of Hispaniola. Elsewhere seas are 6 to 8 ft, except 4 to 6 ft across the eastern and NW parts of the basin outside of the Yucatan Channel and regional waters. Patches of low level moisture embedded in the trade winds flow are moving westward across the area from time to time, resulting in intervals of cloudiness and a few passing showers. The NE winds across the Atlantic are transporting these patches of clouds across the Greater Antilles into the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, minimal gale-force winds will pulse at night near the coast of Colombia tonight and Sun night, and possible again Tue night. Fresh to strong easterly trades will prevail south of Cuba and near the Windward Passage into Sun night, and across the north-central Caribbean through the forecast period. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for information on large swell propagating across the central Atlantic. A stationary front extends southwestward from near Bermuda across 31N65W to the northwest Bahamas. A band of mostly low clouds with possible showers is related to the front. gentle to moderate winds are observed W of the front and N of 27N. Higher wind speeds are W of the front and S of 27N due to the pressure gradient between the front and a 1031 mb high pressure situated over southern Georgia. This is generating fresh to locally strong NE winds across the NW Bahamas and the Straits of Florida where seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range. Farther E, a broad low pressure of 1012 mb persists over the central Atlantic. Fresh to strong winds are still occurring in the NE quadrant of the low center. Please, see the Special Features section for more details. A well defined swirl of low clouds is noted on satellite imagery associated with this low. A surface trough extends from the low center to near 17N50W. The eastern Atlantic is under the influence of a strong high pressure of 1042 mb located NE of the Azores. Mostly fresh trades are observed N of the Cabo Verde Islands to about 23N, and near the coast of Morocco. For the forecast west of 55W, the northern portion of the stationary front should become a cold front again and reach from 31N60W to the central Bahamas by tonight. It will weaken afterward and gradually dissipate by Sun night. A tight pressure gradient will support fresh to strong NE to E winds and building seas across the Bahamas, including the Great Bahama Bank and north of the Windward passage tonight through Sun. Southerly flow will increase offshore northeastern Florida by Sun night ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the western Atlantic Mon. $$ GR