000 AXNT20 KNHC 261046 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Jan 26 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1040 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING: Tight pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and Colombia Low will cause easterly winds at the south-central Caribbean Sea, just north of Colombia to reach near-gale to gale force tonight through early Fri morning. These winds are expected to decrease to between strong and near-gale by late Fri morning. However, they will become near-gale to gale again during Sat and Sun nights. Seas will peak at 10 to 12 ft during gale conditions, and at 7 to 10 ft during the day. ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING: A 1008 mb low pressure well NW of the Cabo Verde Islands near 23N36W will gradually drift westward over the next several days. Meanwhile, a strong surface ridge is expected to build southwestward from north of the Azores. Increasing pressure gradient will produce strong to gale southerly winds NE of the low near 30N35W Fri morning through Fri evening. Combined seas are anticipated to range from 12 to 14 ft during gales. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters Forecasts at the website https://www.nch.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information about both warnings. Both forecasts are issued by the National Hurricane Center. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends SW from the W coast of Africa near 09N13W to 06N18W. The ITCZ begins near 06N18W and continues to 02S30W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03S to 07N between 20W and 27W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from Tampa Bay, Florida SW to the Yucatan peninsula followed by mainly fresh to locally strong northerly winds and seas of 8 to 9 ft being the strongest winds and higher seas in the SW basin. Scattered showers are ahead of the front across the SE gulf waters. For the forecast, the cold front will exit the basin early this afternoon. Winds and seas associated with the passage of this front will gradually improve by Fri. Fresh to locally strong southerly return flow will set-up this weekend in the NW Gulf in response to the next cold front that will be approaching the NW Gulf. This front is expected to move into the far northern Gulf Sun and Sun night, and stall along the northern gulf through Mon night. Fresh to strong east winds will surge from the SW Atlantic through the Straits of Florida and into the far SE Gulf Sat and Sat night and diminish Sun. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more information on a Gale Warning. A surface ridge extending southwestward from a 1027 mb Bermuda High continues to maintain an easterly trade-wind regime for the entire basin. This ridge is also supporting moderate to fresh wind speeds in the E and NW Caribbean as well as strong to near gale force winds across portions of the SW and south-central Caribbean where seas fluctuate between 8 to 11 ft. Seas of 5 to 7 ft are across the E basin while seas of 3 to 5 ft are elsewhere in the NW basin. For the forecast, strong trade winds will continue over the south-central Caribbean Sea, with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere over the eastern and central Caribbean through the forecast period. Near gale to minimal gale-force winds will pulse at night near the coast of Colombia during the majority of the forecast period. A cold front will approach the Yucatan Channel area today, enter the NW Caribbean tonight through early Fri, then stall and dissipate Sat night. Strong NE to E winds are expected to affect the Windward Passage and Lee of Cuba Fri night through Sun night. Similar winds will resume in the Windward Passage Mon night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more information on a Gale Warning. A cold front in the central Atlantic extending from 31N46W SW to 23N50W to 22N59W is followed by fresh to strong N to NE winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft. Farther west, fresh to strong southerly flow is ongoing across the NE and central Florida offshore waters ahead of a cold front moving off the NE Florida coast this morning. Seas are in the 7 to 8 ft N of 29N. A strong pressure gradient between the broad low in the central Atlantic and surface ridging across the NE subtropical waters is supporting strong to near gale force E to SE winds along with seas of 8 to 13 ft. Otherwise, scattered showers are ongoing between the central Atlantic front and the center of low pressure. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front across the offshore waters NE of Puerto Rico will weaken and transition into a shear line tonight. The second front is expected to reach from near 31N74W to the NW Bahamas to the Straits of Florida this afternoon, then weaken as it reaches from near 31N69W to 26N75W to central Cuba early Fri, and from near 31N61W to 25N70W and becoming stationary to central Cuba by Sat afternoon. A tight gradient will create fresh to strong NE to E winds and building seas across the Great Bahama Bank, the Straits of Florida and the Windward passage late Fri night through Sun night. Conditions forecast to improve on Mon. Otherwise, the next cold front is forecast to move off NE Florida Mon morning. $$ Ramos