000 AXNT20 KNHC 251805 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Jan 25 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1750 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF MEXICO GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING: A cold front passes through the Florida Panhandle, into the central sections of the Gulf of Mexico, into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, at the coast of Mexico near 18.5N96W. Precipitation: scattered strong is from 29N northward from 85W eastward. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and other possible rainshowers, are to the northwest of the line that passes through 29N81W 29N85W 24N90W, to the northern part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. The latest values for the sea heights are ranges from 7 feet to 9 feet in the central ections of the Gulf of Mexico, and from 7 feet to 9 feet to the northwest of the cold front. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet from 90W eastward to the east of the cold front. The forecast consists of: NW gale-force winds, and sea heights that range from 9 feet to 12 feet, from 20N southward from the cold front westward, and including within 60 nm of the coast of Veracruz in Mexico. Expect NW-N winds from 20 knots to 25 knots, elsewhere from the cold front westward, except from 24N southward the wind speeds will range from 25 knots to 30 knots. The sea heights will range from 6 feet to 8 feet, except from 24N southward with sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 11 feet. The gale-force winds are forecast to end at the sunset of today. CARIBBEAN SEA GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING: The forecast for 27 January at 03z consists of: gale-force NE-to- E winds, and sea heights that range from 9 feet to 12 feet, from 11N to 12N between 73W AND 75W, along the coast of Colombia. NW Caribbean Sea hight pressure, and comparatively lower surface pressures in Colombia and Panama, will continue to support pulsing winds to gale-force in the south central Caribbean Sea during the next several days, mainly from the nighttime hours until sunrise each morning. The sea heights will build to around 13 feet during the period of the gale-force winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information about both of the above warnings. EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SWELL: A 1008 mb low pressure is near 27N34W. An occluded front curves away from the 1008 mb low pressure center, to a 28N28W triple point. A warm front extends from the triple point to 29N24W. A cold front extends from the triple point to 22N30W 15N40W 14N50W 15N65W. A second cold front curves away from the 1008 mb low pressure center, to 26N31W 23N36W 24N43W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 23N northward between 24W and 34W. Near gale-force winds are from 240 nm and beyond, away from the 1008 mb low pressure center, in the NE quadrant. Strong to near gale-force are from 300 nm away from the center in the SE quadrant. Fresh to strong winds are from 20N northward between the 1008 mb low pressure center and 50W, and elsewhere from 20N northward from the 1008 mb low pressure center eastward. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 12 feet within at least a 600 nm radius of the 1008 mb low pressure center. The comparatively highest sea heights are within 300 nm of the center in the E quadrant, and within 360 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 9 feet from 29N northward from 20W eastward. The sea heights for the remainder of the area that is to the north of the first cold front range from 4 feet to 7 feet, and in the remainder of the area that is from 50W eastward, also ranging from 4 feet to 7 feet. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia near 05N09W, to the Equator along 12W, to 01N17W. The ITCZ continues from 01N17W ,to 03N24W, to the Equator along 28W, to 04S36W and 03S40W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 10N southward from 30W eastward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the area that is from 10N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the Gale-force Wind Warning that was issued for the Gulf of Mexico, the current cold front and related precipitation, and the conditions for the wind speeds and the sea heights. A cold front extends from the far western Florida Panhandle southwestward to 26N90W and to the Bay of Campeche near 10N96W. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms with frequent lightning and gusty winds is ahead of the front, north of 27N. These storms will continue eastward across the Gulf as the front reaches from Tampa Bay, FL to the Yucatan Peninsula tonight, and exits the basin from the Straits of Florida to the Yucatan Channel by midday Thu. Gale-force winds offshore Veracruz will diminish to near gale-force early this evening. Winds and seas will gradually improve by Fri. Fresh to locally strong southerly return flow will set-up this weekend in the far western Gulf in response to the next cold front that will be approaching the NW Gulf. Fresh to strong east winds will surge from the southwestern Atlantic through the Straits of Florida and into the far southeastern Gulf Sat and Sat night. These conditions will improve late on Sun into Sun night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for more information about the Gale-force Wind Warning that was issued for the south central Caribbean Sea, off the coast of northern Colombia. Strong to near gale-force winds have been off the coast of Colombia. Strong winds have been elsewhere in the central sections of the Caribbean Sea. The sea heights have been ranging from 8 feet to 12 feet in the central sections of the Caribbean Sea. Those heights have been spreading southwestward as NE swell, into the SW Caribbean Sea. Fresh to locally strong winds have been the Windward Passage, and in the Gulf of Honduras northward to the Yucatan Channel. Moderate to fresh trade winds have been elsewhere. The sea heights have been ranging from 5 feet to 8 feet in the eastern Caribbean Sea. The sea heights have been ranging from 4 feet to 7 feet in the remainder of the area. The exception has been for ranges of 6 feet to 8 feet in the Gulf of Honduras. Strong trade winds will continue over the south central Caribbean Sea, with fresh winds elsewhere in the eastern and central Caribbean through the forecast period. Near gale to minimal gale-force winds will pulse at night near the coast of Colombia during the majority of the forecast period. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras through this evening. A cold front will approach the Yucatan Channel area on Thu, enter the northwestern Caribbean Thu night through early Fri, then stall and dissipate. Strong northeast to east winds are expected to affect the Windward Passage and Lee of Cuba Sat through early Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about the eastern Atlantic Ocean 1008 mb low pressure center, the related frontal boundaries and nearby precipitation, and the wind speeds and the sea heights/swell that also surround the area of the 1008 mb low pressure center. A cold front extends from 31N49W to 27N60W. A dissipating stationary front continues from 27N60W to 28N75W. Fresh N winds are within 240 nm to the NW of the front. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 9 feet behind the front to 68W. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet elsewhere from 60W westward. Fresh to locally strong trade winds have been near the Windward Passage. Fresh to strong SE to S winds have been offshore northern Florida. A cold front extends from near 31N49W to 25N63W. Moderate to fresh winds are northwest of the front. The front will reach from near 25N55W to 24N62W this evening before dissipating tonight. Fresh to strong southerly flow will develop this morning off northern and central Florida ahead of a strong cold front that will move off the southeastern U.S. coast on this evening. This front is expected to reach from near 31N74W to the NW Bahamas to the Straits of Florida Thu afternoon, then weaken as it reaches from near 31N69W to 26N75W to central Cuba early Fri, and from near 31N61W to 25N70W and becoming stationary to central Cuba by Sat afternoon. A line of scattered showers and thunderstorms, some possibly with strong gusty winds, will precede the front east of Florida tonight into Thu. A tight gradient will create fresh to strong northeast to east winds and building seas within about 180 nm north of the stationary front late Fri night through early Sun, especially over the Bahamas, Windward Passage and Straits of Florida. Conditions improve late on Sun into Sun night. $$ MT/JA