000 AXNT20 KNHC 251116 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed Jan 25 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Storm Warning: A cold front extends from Mobile, AL to Veracruz, Mexico as of 0900 UTC. A pre-frontal squall line is oriented from just W of Destin, FL to 27N90W as of 1000 UTC. Sustained winds of 25-35 kt with a few gusts as high as 50 kt are possible within 60 nm of the western Florida Panhandle through 1200 UTC this morning, within the thunderstorm activity. Then, a Gale Warning will continue through the day today within 60 nm of the Florida Panhandle for sustained winds of 20 to 30 kt with frequent gusts to 35 kt. Seas of 8-13 ft will continue through today in the area. Gale-force NW to N winds are leaving the Tampico area and are now beginning offshore Veracruz. Expect the gales to continue offshore Veracruz through today with seas building to 8-12 ft. Gales will diminish there this evening. Conditions will continue to gradually improve into Thu as the cold front shifts SE of the area. Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: High pressure over the NW Caribbean combined with low pressure over northern Colombia and Panama will continue to support pulsing winds to gale-force in the south central Caribbean Sea during the next several days, mainly at night until around sunrise each morning. The sea heights will build to around 13 feet during the period of the gale-force winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information about both of the above warnings. East Atlantic Swell: 1007 mb low pressure is in the Atlantic near 27N37W. An occluded front wraps around the low to north of 31N with a cold front extending from a triple point at 28N29W through 17N40W then weakening from there to 16N50W. A few troughs are rotating around the low as well per earlier ASCAT scatterometer data. Strong to near-gale force winds are occurring well NE of the low, as well as to the west of the low from about 23N to 28N and east of 44.5W to the low. Fresh winds surround this area from about 20N to 31N between 37W and 48W. Very large and dangerous seas accompany the winds, and there is also a large N swell. Peak seas are currently 16 ft near 25N40W. Seas of 12 ft or greater cover the area from 21N to 31N between 28W and 45W. The significant wave heights should diminish below 12 ft tonight across the discussion waters. However, an eastward moving cold front, currently situated from 31N52W to 27N63W will approach the low pressure, causing winds and seas to increase again Thu through Fri north of 25N between 25W and 53W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia near 07N11W to 01N22W. The ITCZ continues from 01N22W to 00N26W, then continues W of a surface trough from 00N30W to 03S42W. A surface trough extending from 07N26W to 00N28W splits the ITCZ. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 05N between 05W and 17W, and within 180 nm of the coast of Brazil from 05S to 01N. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for details about a Storm Warning in the Gulf of Mexico, as well as associated Gale Warnings. Other than the conditions mentioned in the Special Features section, fresh SE-S winds dominate the SE Gulf south of 25N and east of the front. Strong to near-gale winds are occurring north of 25N and east of the front. Over the NW Gulf, NW winds are starting to gradually diminish, but are still fresh to strong. Near-gale to gale N winds are behind the front in the far west- central and SW Gulf. Seas in the N Gulf are 8-12 ft and 8-10 ft in the west-central and SW Gulf, and will build to 12 ft off Veracruz today. Seas are 5-8 ft in the SE to south-central Gulf. For the forecast, the line of strong to severe thunderstorms with frequent lightning and gusty winds ahead of the front will continue eastward across the Gulf as the front reaches from Tampa Bay, FL to the Yucatan Peninsula tonight, and exits the basin from the Straits of Florida to the Yucatan Channel by midday Thu. Winds and seas will gradually improve by Fri. Fresh to locally strong southerly return flow will set-up this weekend in the far western Gulf in response to the next cold front that will be approaching the NW Gulf. Fresh to strong east winds will surge from the southwestern Atlantic through the Straits of Florida and into the far southeastern Gulf Sat and Sat night. These conditions will improve late on Sun into Sun night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for details about a Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean offshore northern Colombia. Strong winds are occurring in the central Caribbean, locally near gale-force offshore northern Colombia. Seas are 8-12 ft across this area, spreading southwest as NE swell to the SW Caribbean. Fresh to locally strong winds are near the Windward Passage, as well as in the Gulf of Honduras northward to the Yucatan Channel. Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere. Seas are 5-8 ft in the eastern Caribbean, and 4-7 ft across the remainder of the area, except 6 to 8 ft in the Gulf of Honduras. Some isolated thunderstorms are in the coastal waters of Costa Rica. For the forecast, strong trade winds will continue over the south-central Caribbean Sea, with fresh winds elsewhere over the eastern and central Caribbean through the forecast period. Near gale to minimal gale-force winds will pulse at night near the coast of Colombia during the majority of the forecast period. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras through this evening. A cold front will approach the Yucatan Channel area on Thu, enter the northwestern Caribbean Thu night through early Fri, then stall and dissipate. Strong northeast to east winds are expected to affect the Windward Passage and Lee of Cuba Sat through early Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section above for details about features, winds and seas between 20W and 50W, from 15N to 31N. A cold front extends from 31N52W to 27N63W. Fresh N winds prevail within 240 nm NW of the front. Seas of 7-9 ft are behind the front to 68W. Elsewhere west of 60W, seas are 4-6 ft. A 1021 mb high pressure is centered near 25N57W. Fresh to locally strong trades are near the Windward Passage. Fresh to strong SE to S winds are offshore northern Florida. Offshore Morocco in the far NE Atlantic, strong to near gale force N winds prevail along with seas 8-11 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front from near 31N52W to 26N63W will extend from 25N55W to 24N62W this evening before moving E of the area tonight. Fresh to strong southerly flow will develop this morning off northern and central Florida ahead of a strong cold front that will move off the southeastern U.S. coast on this evening. This front is expected to reach from near 31N74W to the NW Bahamas to the Straits of Florida Thu afternoon, then weaken as it reaches from near 31N69W to 26N75W to central Cuba early Fri, and from near 31N61W to 25N70W and becomes stationary to central Cuba by Sat afternoon. A line of scattered showers and thunderstorms will precede the front east of Florida tonight into Thu. A tight gradient will create fresh to strong northeast to east winds and building seas within about 180 nm north of the stationary front late Fri night through early Sun, especially over the Bahamas, Windward Passage and Straits of Florida. Conditions improve late on Sun into Sun night. $$ Hagen