000 AXNT20 KNHC 222121 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Jan 23 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2120 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: Fresh to strong winds will pulse to near- gale force tonight, then pulse to gale force each night during the week. Seas will build to near 12 ft during the period of gale- force winds. Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front from 31N50W to 26N60W to 26N64W, becomes stationary to 26N74W. The parent low will drift southward into the discussion waters, with gale-force winds spreading west of the front Mon afternoon. Winds will diminish below gale- force on Tuesday. Seas in the area of gale-force winds will peak near 20 ft Mon night into Tue. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia near 06N10W to 01N24W. The ITCZ extends from 01N24W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from the equator to 11N east of 18W, and within 60 nm of the ITCZ between 20W and 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from near Destin, Florida southwestward to 26N91W and to 20N97W. A reinforcing cold front extends from Louisiana to N Mexico. Fresh to strong winds prevail west of the first front, and east of that front N of 26N. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range west of the first front, as well as over the NE Gulf ahead of that front. Seas of 3-5 ft prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the front will merge late tonight from near Tampa, Florida southwestward to 24N89W and to the Yucatan Peninsula. The front will weaken as it reaches the far southeastern Gulf by late Mon. Fresh to strong northwest to north winds behind the front will diminish Mon as high pressure in the wake of the front shifts eastward across the area. A stronger cold front is expected to move over the NW Gulf Tue, reach from near Mobile, Alabama southwestward to 25N94W and to the southwestern Gulf by late Tue night, from near Tampa, Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula by late Wed night and to just southeast of the area by late Thu. Strong to near-gale force northwest to north winds will follow this front across the NW Gulf Tue and Tue night. The front will also be preceded by strong to near gale- force southerly winds. Occasional gusts to gale- force may are expected on either side of the front, and a gale warning may be posted in future forecasts. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean off the northern coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong winds prevail over the central Caribbean, with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range over the central Caribbean, and 4-6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will continue over most of the central and eastern Caribbean through the forecast period. Winds will pulse at night to minimal gale-force near the coast of Colombia during the week. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras through Wed. A cold front will approach the Yucatan Channel area on Thu, enter the northwestern and north-central Caribbean Thu night through early Fri, then stall and dissipate. Fresh northeast winds in the wake of the front will prevail in the northwest and north-central Caribbean even after the front dissipates. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning in the Atlantic waters. A cold front from 31N50W to 26N60W to 26N64W, becomes stationary to 26N74W. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 8-10 ft, are within 60 NM either side of the front N of 30N. Fresh to strong winds have developed over the waters off Florida. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere W of 70W, with light to gentle winds over the remainder of waters N of 20N and W of 35W. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range N of 20N and W of 35W, and 7-9 ft elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will shift southeast of the area by early Mon. Fresh to strong southerly winds will off the Florida coast are ahead of a strong cold front that is forecast to push off the US coast tonight into Mon morning. This front is expected to reach from near 31N70W to the central Bahamas and to central Cuba by late Mon, from near 31N61W to 26N70W and stationary to east-central Cuba by early Tue, then shift east of 55W Wed. Fresh to strong west to northwest winds are expected behind the front along with building seas through mid-week. Marine conditions improve Thu through Fri night. $$ AL