000 AXNT20 KNHC 221023 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Jan 22 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: NE to E gale force winds are expected to end this morning by 12Z in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia, from 11N to 12N between 72W and 75W. Seas will be 8-12 ft. Just east of the warning area, strong to near gale force winds will impact the Gulf of Venezuela with 4-7 ft seas. E gales will pulse again on Mon night and Tue night. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the W coast of Africa near 06N10W to 01N24W. The ITCZ extends from 01N24W to 01N43W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03S to 03N and E of 30W. GULF OF MEXICO... A warm front extends from 28N83W to 31N87W. A stationary front extends from 26N91W to 23N98W. A 1008 mb low is analyzed near 29N90W. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the warm front. Moderate to fresh W winds are noted in the vicinity of the warm front along with 4-7 ft seas. Moderate SE-S winds prevail elsewhere along with 2-4 ft seas. For the forecast, the frontal system currently across the northern gulf waters will merge with a cold front today and move SE across the basin. Fresh to strong N winds and rough seas will accompany this front through tonight. The next cold front will enter the NW portion of the basin by midweek and continue moving SE through the rest of the week. Strong to near gale force N winds and rough seas will develop in the wake of the front across the basin beginning on Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean off the northern coast of Colombia. Subtropical high pressure extends a ridge SSW across the Caribbean waters, which along with lower pressure in northern Colombia tightens the pressure gradient, thus supporting the continuation of mainly fresh trades across the eastern half of the basin along with 5-8 ft seas, except fresh to strong in the central Caribbean from 10N to 18N where seas are 6-10 ft. Gentle to moderate winds prevail in the NW Caribbean with locally fresh winds near the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are 2-4 ft in the NW Caribbean, locally to 5 ft near the Gulf of Honduras. For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will continue over most of the central and eastern Caribbean through the forecast period. Winds will pulse at night to minimal gale-force near the coast of Colombia on Mon night and Tue night. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras through midweek. A cold front is expected to approach the Yucatan Channel area on Thu enhancing winds/seas. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N55W to 26N72W, then becomes stationary from that point to 27N77W. Scattered showers are possible near and just ahead of the front. Fresh to strong SW winds are north of 28N and east of the front to around 60W. Gentle to moderate winds are north of the front. Associated NW swell of 7-11 ft is north of 28N between 50W and 66W. A weak ridge is on either side of the trough with mainly gentle to locally moderate winds north of 20N and west of 35W. Seas are 4-7 ft north of 20N between 35W and 60W, and 2-5 ft west of 20N. A weak 1018 mb low pressure area is near 27N36W with a trough from 31N36W through the low to 19N39W per recent ASCAT scatterometer data. Moderate to fresh SE winds are just east of the trough with seas around 7 ft. Moderate to fresh trades and 6-9 ft seas prevail across the remainder of the waters, except fresh to strong north of 20N and east of 22W through the Canary Islands. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong southerly winds will develop off the Florida coast today ahead of another cold front that is forecast to push off the US coast tonight into Mon morning. This front is expected to reach from near 31N70W to the central Bahamas and to central Cuba by late Mon, from near 31N61W to 26N70W and stationary to east-central Cuba by early Tue, then shift east of 55W Wed. Fresh to strong west to northwest winds are expected behind the front along with building seas through midweek. $$ ERA