000 AXNT20 KNHC 211755 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Jan 21 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: NE to E gale force winds are expected tonight in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia, from 11N to 12N between 72W and 75W. Seas will be 9-12 ft. Gales will begin at 22/0300 UTC, ending by 22/1200 UTC. Just east of the warning area, strong to near gale force winds will impact the Gulf of Venezuela with 8-11 ft seas. Please see the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia near 06N11W to 02N14W to 01S23W. The ITCZ continues from 01S23W to the coast of Brazil at 01S45W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is near the monsoon trough, from 01S to 07N between 05W and 20W. Scattered showers are elsewhere in the vicinity of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 1500 UTC, a frontal boundary extends across the northern Gulf waters with scattered moderate convection from 26N to 29N between 87W and 90W. The frontal boundary is stationary from Charlotte Harbor, FL to 27N88W. A warm front then continues from 27N88W to 1012 mb low pressure centered near 27N97W. A forming stationary front is evident in observations and satellite imagery extending from the low pressure to 24N97W. The latest surface observations indicate moderate to fresh ENE winds north of the frontal boundary, with mainly moderate SE winds south of the boundary. Seas are 4-6 ft in the Gulf north of 25N and west of 87W, peaking to 7 ft in the NW Gulf. Elsewhere in the Gulf, seas are 2-4 ft. For the forecast, the warm front and low pressure will lift northeastward of the area this evening. The aforementioned forming stationary boundary will become a cold front by tonight, reaching from near southeastern Louisiana to 26N94W to 22N98W early Sun and become stationary over the far southeastern Gulf by late Sun. Fresh to strong northwest to north winds will follow the front through late Sun night, before diminishing to primarily fresh speeds. Fresh to strong east to southwest winds are expected to develop over the far western Gulf starting late Mon as low pressure deepens over the southern Plains. A strong cold front associated to the low pressure is expected to move into the NW Gulf early Tue afternoon, reach from near Mobile, Alabama to 26N92W and to the SW Gulf late Tue night, then weaken as it reaches from near Tampa, Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula by late Wed night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a GALE WARNING in the south-central Caribbean, off the coast of Colombia. Classic winter conditions are in force across the Caribbean Sea. In the central Caribbean, a moderate pressure gradient is supporting fresh to strong trades, with highest winds near the coast of Colombia and within the Gulf of Venezuela. Trades are moderate in the E Caribbean, and gentle to moderate in the W Caribbean. Seas are 8-10 ft from 10N to 15N between 74W and 80W. Seas are 4-7 ft elsewhere in the basin, except in the NW Caribbean where seas are 2-4 ft. For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will continue over most of the central and eastern part of the western Caribbean through the period. Winds are expected to reach minimal gale-force near the coast of Colombia tonight. Moderate to fresh winds will also pulse in the Gulf of Honduras through the middle of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the W Atlantic waters near 31N65W, continuing to the northern Bahamas near 27N77W. A stationary boundary continues from 27N77W to Port St. Lucie, FL. SW winds are moderate to fresh north of 29N between 60W and the cold front. Seas greater than 8 ft are north of a line from 31N55W to 29N63W to 31N66W. A trough is analyzed from 25N61W to 22N67W. A weak stationary front lingers in the central Atlantic, from 61N42W to 23N52W, with no significant winds or seas. This front will likely dissipate this evening or overnight. 1020 mb low pressure is centered near 30N37W, with a trough extending from the low south to 24N37W. Scattered showers are near the low and trough. One final trough is analyzed in the central Atlantic, from 20N42W to 11N54W. Despite the number of features listed above, the tropical Atlantic is governed by the subtropical Azores high centered north of the area, and three high pressures centered as follows: 1021 mb near 25N69W, 1022 mb near 26N49W, and 1022 mb near 24N44W. Light to gentle winds are between 20N and 30N west of 30W, with gentle to moderate NE winds between 20N and 30N east of 30W. South of 20N across the discussion waters, NE to E winds are moderate to fresh. Seas are 2-4 ft in W Atlantic waters south of 26N and west of 65W. Elsewhere, seas are 4-7 across the basin. For the forecast west of 55W, conditions near the aforementioned cold front will shift east of the area early tonight as the cold front moves toward the central Atlantic. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop off the Florida coast on Sun ahead of another cold front that is forecast to push off Sun night into Mon morning. Fresh to strong west to northwest winds are expected behind this front along with building seas. $$ Mahoney