000
AXNT20 KNHC 201004
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Jan 20 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0945 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 10N14W
to 1011 mb low near 10N15W to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 
04N20W to 01N45W. Scattered moderate convection is S of 00N
between 17W-24W. Scattered showers prevail within 100 nm on either
side of the ITCZ and W of 36W. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front stretches from the Florida Big Bend to 29N85W, then 
becomes stationary to 25N95W. Recent observations depict moderate 
to fresh NE winds behind the front, while light to moderate E to 
SE winds are noted ahead of the front. Moderate seas are noted 
across the northern half of the basin, while slight seas prevail 
across the southern half, except for moderate seas over the 
Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, the whole front will stall today. Low pressure 
will form along the front in the western Gulf by tonight and move 
northward. Strong NW winds and rough seas are expected to develop 
this weekend in the northern and western Gulf waters as the low 
pressure and associated frontal boundary meanders northward. The 
cold front will then push eastward on Sun across the Gulf with 
fresh to strong winds following it.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mid-level anti-cyclonic flow is leading to subsidence and 
relatively dry air across the basin. Fresh to strong winds and 
sea heights of 8 to 10 ft are occurring in the south-central 
Caribbean. Elsewhere, winds are moderate to fresh with light to 
moderate seas, except for locally strong E winds and seas up to 7
ft in the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will pulse in the 
south-central Caribbean and near the coast of Colombia through 
early next week. Winds could approach near gale-force closer to 
the Colombia coast. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Gulf 
of Honduras through the morning hours, then pulse to moderate to 
fresh through early next week. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The pressure gradient between a low pressure system over the 
mid-Atlantic U.S. states and high pressure centered east of the 
Bahamas near 27N67W supports moderate to fresh SW winds offshore 
central to NE FL, north of 28N and west of 73W, where moderate
seas prevail. The remainder of the western Atlantic is dominated 
by the light to gentle anticyclonic flow surrounding the high 
pressure center with slight to moderate seas. To the east, a weak
cold front extends from 31N49W to 28N57W. Gentle to moderate NW 
winds follow the front, with moderate seas. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted E of the front mainly N of 26N between 
36W-46W. The remainder of the Atlantic is experiencing moderate to
fresh trade winds, except over the Canary Islands, where NE winds
remain fresh to locally strong with rough seas. 

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will continue to 
build across the area, and become centered between Puerto Rico and
Bermuda today. Fresh to strong SW winds have developed offshore 
NE Florida ahead of the next front. The front will push off the NE
Florida coast this morning with fresh to strong ahead and behind 
the front. Moderate to rough seas can also be expected with this 
front as it propagates eastward through the weekend and staying N 
of 28N. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop off the 
Florida coast on Sun ahead of another cold front. 

$$
ERA