000 AXNT20 KNHC 192301 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Jan 20 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2240 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia near 05N09W to 02N18W. The ITCZ continues from 02N18W to 0.5N40W, then resumes from 04N49W to 06.5N55W. A surface trough splits the ITCZ from 02N42W to 00N44W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03S to 06N between 33W and 51W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from Apalachicola, FL to 25N95W. Scattered moderate convection is well east of the front, off the west coast of Florida, from 25N to 30N, and east of 86.5W. Over the SW Gulf of Mexico, a weak boundary is oriented N-S along 95W from 18.5N to 25N. This weak boundary is currently being analyzed as a stationary front. Fresh NE winds are in the far west-central Gulf off S Texas and NE Mexico while light to gentle S winds are found in the eastern Bay of Campeche. Moderate southerlies extend from the Yucatan Channel to where the moderate convection is west of Florida. Seas as high as 5 to 6 ft are found in the west-central Gulf and in the Yucatan Channel. Seas are 3-5 ft elsewhere, except for 2-3 ft in the eastern and central Bay of Campeche. The cold front will stall from Tampa Bay, Florida to NE Mexico by Fri morning. Low pressure may form along the front in the western Gulf on Fri and move northward. This will induce strong winds in the northern and western Gulf waters late Fri into Sat as the low pressure and associated frontal boundary meanders northward. The cold front will push eastward on Sun across the Gulf with fresh to strong winds following it. Looking ahead, the next cold front should enter the Gulf Tue, with strong winds on both sides of the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... Mid-level anti-cyclonic flow is leading to subsidence and relatively dry air across the basin. Fresh to strong winds and sea heights of 7 to 9 ft are occurring in the south-central Caribbean. Elsewhere, winds are moderate to fresh with seas of 4-6 ft, except up to 7 ft in the Gulf of Honduras. For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will pulse in the south-central Caribbean and near the coast of Colombia through early next week. Winds could approach near gale-force closer to the Colombia coast. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras tonight and then become moderate to fresh through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1021 mb high pressure is centered near 27N69W. Gentle or weaker anticyclonic winds prevail from 24N-29N between 63W-75W. Moderate trades extend from N of Puerto Rico to the SE Bahamas. Fresh to strong SW winds are found north of 29.5N and west of 76W with 5-6 ft seas. A weak cold front extends from 31N55W to 29.5N65W. Ahead of this front, fresh W winds are north of 29N between 51W-58W. Seas are 7 to 9 ft in NW swell north of 28N between 52W-64W. Seas are 5-7 ft from 18N-28N between 50W-70W. Closer to the Bahamas, seas around 4 ft are noted. Farther E, a surface trough extends from 16N42W to 27N47W. Scattered moderate convection is noted E of the trough, from 20N-26N between 38.5W-41.5W. Ridging and relatively weak winds cover the area from 20N-25N between 43W-60W. To the south, trade winds are moderate to fresh in the tropical Atlantic waters, with 7-8 ft seas. A 1036 mb high pressure over the Azores is leading to fresh winds east of 35W, except for strong to near gale force NE winds north of 26N and east of 21W, including the Canary Islands and extending to the coast of Morocco. Seas are 10-16 ft in the strong to near gale force wind area. Seas of 7-9 ft are present elsewhere north of 09N and east of 44W. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong SW winds will continue offshore NE Florida tonight ahead of a cold front that will push off the NE Florida coast late tonight. Fresh to strong winds are expected ahead of the front with moderate to fresh winds behind the front. Moderate to rough seas can also be expected with this front as it propagates eastward through the weekend and stays N of 28N. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop off the Florida coast on Sun ahead of another cold front. $$ Hagen