000 AXNT20 KNHC 190555 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Jan 19 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning E of 35W: The pressure gradient between a 1037 mb high pressure over the Azores and low pressure over northwest Africa associated with a cold front that extends from off the coast of Morocco to just south of the Canary Islands and northwest to 28N27W is inducing north to northeast gale-force winds near the coast of Morocco, in the Meteo-France marine zones Agadir and Tarfaya. Meteo-France is forecasting that these conditions will continue through early Thu evening, local time. The Outlook, for the 24 hours that follows the forecast that is valid until 20/0000 UTC consists of the persistence of northeast gale force winds for marine zones Agadir and Canarias. Seas of 14-18 ft are likely within the gale-force wind-affected marine zones. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo- France at website https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends off the coast of Sierra Leone from 08N13W southwestward to 05N18W, where the latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 03N30W to 03N40W and to 03N45W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 03N to 07N between 35W and 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 0300 UTC, a cold front entered the NW Gulf and stretches from just east of Holly Beach, LA, to just south of Corpus Christi, TX. Scattered thunderstorms are within 30 nm ahead of the boundary along the N Gulf coast. Moderate NW winds are behind the front, while moderate southerly winds cover the remainder of the western Gulf ahead of the boundary. High pressure ridging from the western Atlantic extends over the eastern Gulf. The tightening pressure gradient between this ridge and incoming lower pressures associated with the cold front is supporting moderate to fresh from the S-SE east of 88W. Locally strong breezes may be just north of the Yucatan Channel. 6 to 8 ft seas are observed over the western Gulf, west of 90W, with 3 to 5 ft seas elsewhere. For the forecast, the cold front will extend from the Florida Panhandle to near Tampico, Mexico, by Thu afternoon. Fresh N winds will prevail behind the front. Low pressure may form on the western edge of the front in the western Gulf late this week and move northward. Strong winds are expected to develop this weekend in the northern and western Gulf waters as the low pressure, and associated frontal boundary moves eastward. CARIBBEAN SEA... Mid to upper-level ridging over the western two-thirds of the Caribbean Sea is providing subsidence and relatively dry air, which is limiting any isolated shower activity across the basin. A tight pressure gradient across the basin between the 1021 mb high over the western Atlantic and lower pressures over northern Colombia and the Yucatan Peninsula is generating areas of fresh to strong trade winds offshore Colombia, within the Yucatan Channel, and within the Gulf of Honduras, west of 85W. Seas are 6 to 7 ft in the NW Caribbean, west of 85W. The latest scatterometer data depicts mainly fresh trades elsewhere across the basin due to the pressure gradient, including within the Windward Passage. Lighter winds may be in the Lee of Cuba. 6 to 8 ft seas are noted in the central Caribbean between 70W and 80W and are 4 to 6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will pulse in the south- central Caribbean and near the coast of Colombia through early next week. Fresh to strong winds will pulse nightly in the Gulf of Honduras into Thu night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... For conditions north of 29N and east of 20W, which is north of the Canary Islands and west of Morocco, please see the Special Features section above. High pressure continues to dominate the western Tropical Atlantic, centered near 27N70W. Light to gentle anticyclonic flow surrounds the high from 22N to 29N between 60W and the E coast of Florida, where seas are 3 to 5 ft. Some moderate trade winds are S of 22N, near the Greater Antilles, where seas are slightly higher, near 6 ft in recent buoy observations. North of 29N, moderate to fresh west winds are noted ahead of a stationary front north of the area. Over the central Atlantic, a surface trough extends from 30N51W to 24N59W. The latest satellite imagery depicts mostly broken clouds with possible scattered showers north of 27N. Moderate NE winds are noted west of the trough and south of 24N, with 6 to 8 ft seas in NE swell extending to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Light to gentle trade winds is noted east of the trough from 15N to 31N and west of 42W, where seas are 7 to 9 ft. Another surface trough extends from 27N42W to 18N41W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue within 210 nm east of the trough. East of 40W, trade winds increase to moderate to fresh, with locally strong NE winds noted between the Canary Islands. Seas are mainly 7 to 10 ft and near 12 ft north of the Canary Islands. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned trough that extends from 31N52W to 25N57W and to just east of the Virgin Islands is forecast to slide eastward over the next few days. High pressure will build across the area and become centered between Puerto Rico and Bermuda into late week. On the NW periphery of this ridge, fresh to strong southwest winds will develop offshore northeast Florida Thu through Fri, quickly propagating eastward into early in the weekend and staying north of 28N. $$ Mora