000 AXNT20 KNHC 181145 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed Jan 18 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning E of 35W: The pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and lower pressures over W Africa will support strong to near gale force north to northeast winds N of 28N and within about 240 nm of the coast of W Africa. Winds locally gusting to gale-force are expected in the far E part of this area beginning at 18/1500 UTC. Seas of 10-15 ft are expected, except building to 11-17 ft with winds that will be locally gusting to gale-force. The local gusts to gale force are expected to diminish to near gale force early on Wed, but seas will remain in the 11-17 ft range over the far E part. For more details, refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo- France at the website: https://weather.gmdss.org/ll.html ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 09N13W to 07N17W. The ITCZ continues from 07N17W to 02N22W to 00N40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03S to 03N between 03W and 10W, and from 00N to 05N between 42W and 51W. . ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure prevails across the Gulf waters. Fresh to strong return flow prevails over the NW Gulf, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-7 ft range over the NW Gulf, and 2-4 ft elsewhere. The combination of light southerly winds and abundantly available moisture may induce the formation of dense marine fog within 20 nm of the coasts of central and NE Texas and SW Louisiana this morning. Visibility may be restricted to below 1 nm, creating hazardous conditions for mariners. For the forecast, fresh to strong S return flow will prevail in the western Gulf ahead of a cold front that is forecast to enter the western Gulf tonight. The front will extend from the Florida Panhandle to near Tampico, Mexico by Thu. Fresh N winds are likely behind the front. Low pressure may form on the western edge of the front in the western Gulf late this week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong winds prevail across the central Caribbean as well as the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range over the central Caribbean and 3-5 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will pulse in the south- central Caribbean and near the coast of Colombia through the weekend. Fresh to strong winds will pulse nightly in the Gulf of Honduras into Thu night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N51W to 22N60W and transitions to a surface trough that extends south to the Leeward Islands near 17N62W. High pressure prevails elsewhere across the discussion waters. Fresh to strong winds are noted off the coast of northern Florida, with light to gentle winds elsewhere N of 20N and W of 45W. Gentle to moderate winds are S of 20N and W of 35W, while moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range N of 20N and E of 65W, with seas of 5-7 ft elsewhere. For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned stationary front will weaken into a trough today. Seas N of 25N and E of 75W of 10 ft will diminish today. High pressure will build across the area, and become centered between Puerto Rico and Bermuda into late week. On the NW periphery of this ridge, fresh to locally strong SW winds may occur at times offshore NE Florida. $$ AL