000 AXNT20 KNHC 180555 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Jan 18 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning E of 35W: The pressure gradient between strong Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressures over W Africa will support strong to near gale force north to northeast winds N of 28N and within about 240 nm of the coast of W Africa. Winds locally gusting to gale-force are expected in the far E part of this area beginning at 18/1500 UTC. Seas of 10-15 ft are expected, except building to 11-17 ft with winds that will be locally gusting to gale-force. The local gusts to gale force are expected to diminish to near gale force early on Wed, but seas will remain in the 11-17 ft range over the far E part. For more details, refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo- France at the website: https://weather.gmdss.org/ll.html ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Guinea near 09N13W and continues to 07N17W, where the latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to 03N20W and to near 02N35W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm N of a line from 20W to 35W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A 1020 mb high pressure center east of the Bahamas extends a ridge westward across the Gulf of Mexico, maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure over NE Mexico sustains moderate to fresh E-SE winds over the central and western basin, north of 20N west of 85W, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 2-4 ft prevail elsewhere. The combination of light southerly winds and abundantly available moisture may induce the formation of dense marine fog within 20 nm of the coasts of central and NE Texas and SW Louisiana tonight into Wed morning. Visibility may be restricted to below 1 nm, creating hazardous conditions for mariners. For the forecast, fresh to strong S return flow in the western Gulf will develop across much of the Gulf tonight and Wed ahead of a cold front that is forecast to enter the western Gulf Wed night. The front is forecast to reach from the Florida Panhandle to near Tampico, Mexico by Thu. Fresh N winds are likely behind the front. Low pressure may form on the western edge of the front, in the western Gulf, late this week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A recent scatterometer pass reveals a shear line persists, extending from the Leeward Islands near 17N63W to just west of the ABC Islands near 13N69W. Isolated showers moving westward are along and near the shear line. Fresh northeast to east winds continues north of the shear line, while moderate easterly winds are present south of the shear line. The exception is strong northeast winds occurring within 90 nm of the coast of NW Colombia and fresh to strong winds within the Gulf of Honduras. Seas of 6-8 ft are occurring in the central and NE Caribbean between 68W and 80W. Elsewhere moderate trades and 3-5 ft seas prevail. For the forecast, the shear line will dissipate by later this morning. Fresh to strong trade winds will pulse in the south-central Caribbean and near the coast of Colombia through the weekend. Fresh to strong winds will pulse nightly in the Gulf of Honduras into Thu night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The western tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad 1020 mb high pressure system centered east of the Bahamas near 27N71W. Moderate to fresh westerly winds are evident north of 29N. However, the main feature of interest in the tropical Atlantic is the stationary front that extends from 31N51W to 22N60W and transitions to a surface trough that extends south to the Leeward Islands near 17N62W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 150 nm east of the stationary front. A recent scatterometer pass found light to gentle winds west of the front, with moderate to fresh E-SE winds are ahead of the front, north of 29N. Seas of 9 to 11 ft surround the boundary N of 25N, between 45W and 60W. Faster east, a surface trough is along 37W from 17N to 26N. Scattered moderate convection is present to the northeast of the trough from 22N to 27N. The latest ASCAT data indicates fresh to strong east-southeast winds north of the southern Cabo Verde Islands and east of 35W. Seas in these waters are 6-11 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent in the rest of the basin. For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned stationary front will gradually weaken into a trough through Wed. Seas north of 25N and east of 75W will gradually diminish during this time. High pressure will build in the wake of the front and center between Puerto Rico and Bermuda into late week. On the northwest periphery of this ridge, fresh to locally strong southwest winds may occur at times offshore northeastern Florida. $$ Mora