000 AXNT20 KNHC 172356 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Jan 18 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning E of 35W: The pressure gradient between strong Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressures over W Africa will support strong to near gale-force north to northeast winds N of 28N and within about 240 nm of the coast of W Africa. Winds locally gusting to gale-force are expected in the far E part of this area beginning at 18/0000 UTC tonight. Seas of 10-15 ft are expected with the strong to near gale-force winds, except building to 11-17 ft with winds that will be locally gusting to gale-force. The local gusts to gale-force are expected to diminish to near gale-force early on Wed, but seas will remain in the 11-17 ft range over the far E part. For the Outlook, for the 24 hours that follows the forecast that is valid until 19/0000 UTC: a persistence of or threat of near-gale northeast winds of gale force will exist for the waters of Agadir. For more details, refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo- France at website: https://weather.gmdss.org/ll.html ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Liberia near 06N10W and continues to 05N17W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to 02N25W and to near 01N35W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of a line from 04N22W to 04N30W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A 1019 mb high pressure center near the Bahamas extends westward across the Gulf of Mexico, maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a low pressure system over NE Mexico sustain moderate to fresh southerly winds across the basin. Seas are 4-7 ft in the central and western Gulf, with the highest seas occurring in the NW Gulf. Seas of 2-4 ft prevail elsewhere. The combination of light southerly winds and abundant available moisture may induce the formation of dense marine fog within 20 nm of the coasts of central and NE Texas and SW Louisiana tonight into Wed morning. Visibility may be restricted to below 1 nm, creating hazardous conditions for mariners. For the forecast, fresh to strong S return flow in the western Gulf will develop across much of the Gulf tonight and Wed ahead of a cold front that is forecast to enter the western Gulf Wed night. The front is forecast to reach from the Florida Panhandle to near Tampico, Mexico by Thu. Fresh N winds are likely behind the front. Low pressure may form on the western edge of the front, in the western Gulf, late this week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A shear line extends from the Leeward Islands near 16N62W to 15N67W and to near 14N75W. Isolated showers moving westward are along and near the shear line. Latest ASCAT data passes indicate that fresh to strong northeast to east winds are north of the shear line, while moderate to fresh easterly winds are present south of the shear line. The exception is strong northeast winds occurring within 90 nm of the coast of NW Colombia. Seas of 5-7 ft are occurring in the central and NE Caribbean and 3-5 ft in the SE Caribbean. A weak surface trough is analyzed in the central Caribbean from near 18N75W to 14N79W. Low-level wind speed convergence is generating some weak showers near the trough axis. Moderate to fresh easterly winds along with seas of 3-4 ft are prevalent in the NW Caribbean. For the forecast, the aforementioned shear line will dissipate tonight. Fresh to strong trade winds will pulse in the south- central Caribbean and near the coast of Colombia through the weekend. Fresh to strong winds will pulse nightly into Thu night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The western tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad 1019 mb high pressure system centered east of the Bahamas near 26N73W. Moderate to fresh westerly winds are evident north of 28N. However, the main feature of interest in the tropical Atlantic is the stationary front that extends from 31N52W to 24N58W and to the Leeward Islands near 16N62W. Scattered moderate convection is noted north of 2cold front has stalled from 31N51W to the Leeward Islands. This front will gradually weaken into a trough through midweek. Fresh to locally strong winds behind the front N of 28N and E of 68W will diminish by tonight. Seas to 14 ft will gradually subside through Wed. High pressure will build in the wake of the front. 2N between the frontal boundary and 49W. Seas are 8-13 ft behind the frontal boundary, especially east of 75W. The highest seas are occurring near 31N60W. Seas are about 5-8 ft west of 75W. Faster east, a surface trough is along 36W from 17N to 25N. Scattered moderate convection is present to the northeast of the trough from 23N to 26N between 33W-36W. Latest ASCAT data indicates fresh to strong east-southeast winds north of a line from the southern Cabo Verde Islands to 31N45W. Seas in these waters are 6-11 ft, with the highest seas occurring near 31N43W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent in the rest of the basin. For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned stationary front will gradually weaken into a trough through Wed. Seas north of 25N and east of 75W will gradually diminish during this time. High pressure will build in the wake of the front and center between Puerto Rico and Bermuda into late week. On the northwest periphery of this ridge, fresh to locally strong southwest winds may occur at times offshore northeastern Florida. $$ Aguirre