000
AXNT20 KNHC 170834
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Jan 17 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0830 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends westward from 09N13W to 06N19W. The 
ITCZ continues from 06N19W to 00N30W to 00N41W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 05S to 04N between 17W and 33W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails across the Gulf waters. Moderate to fresh
winds prevail across much of the Gulf waters. Seas are in the 5-8
ft range west of 90W, and 3-5 ft east of 90W. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong S return flow in the western 
Gulf will develop across much of the Gulf tonight and Wed ahead of
a cold front that is forecast to enter the western Gulf Wed 
night. The front will extend near Mobile Bay to S of Tampico, 
Mexico, by Thu morning. Fresh N winds are likely behind the front.


...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A dissipating frontal boundary extends from the Virgin Islands 
to near 14N70W. Fresh to strong winds are noted over the central
Caribbean with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are in 
the 5-7 ft range over the central Caribbean, and 3-5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the aforementioned dissipating frontal boundary
will dissipate today. Fresh to strong trade winds will pulse in 
the south-central Caribbean and near the coast of Colombia into 
the weekend. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of 
Honduras beginning Tue evening. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N52W to the Leeward Islands. High
pressure prevails elsewhere across the discussion waters. Mainly
gentle to moderate winds prevail, except reaching fresh speeds N
of 20N and E of 35W. Seas of 8-11 ft cover much of the waters N of
20N, reaching 12-14 ft N of 28N between 35W and 70W. Seas of 6-7 
ft prevail S of 20N. 

For the forecast W of 55W, the front will slowly shift eastward 
into midweek before weakening into a trough. Strong winds behind 
the front N of 28N and E of 68W will diminish today. Seas to 14 ft
will gradually subside through midweek. High pressure will build 
in the wake of the front. 

$$
AL