000
AXNT20 KNHC 170542
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Jan 17 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends westward from near the Sierra 
Leone/Liberia border into the Atlantic to near 07N11W to near 
06N16W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and extends to 00N30W 
and to 00N38W. Isolated convection is noted from the equator to 
about 05N and between 15W and 20W. Scattered moderate convection 
is noted from 04N to the ITCZ axis between 23W and 33W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge reaches westward from a 1020 mb high over 
central Florida to the western Bay of Campeche. Recent buoy and 
altimeter observations are reporting strong SE winds and 7 to 9 
ft seas in the central Gulf, NW of the Yucatan Peninsula to 26N. 
Moderate to fresh south-southeast winds and seas of 4-7 ft is 
noted west of 85W, with seas peaking near 9 ft in the far NW 
Gulf. Mainly moderate winds and seas less than 3 ft are east of 
85W.

For the forecast, strong southerly return flow in the western 
Gulf will diminish tonight but develop across much of the Gulf 
Tue night and Wed ahead of a cold front that is forecast to enter
the western Gulf Wed night. The front will extend near Mobile 
Bay to S of Tampico, Mexico by Thu morning. Fresh north winds 
are expected behind the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A dissipating frontal boundary extends from the Virgin Islands 
to near 14N70W. A recent satellite scatterometer pass noted 
fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean, the 
Windward Passage, and offshore of Honduras. Strong winds are 
noted south of the Dominican Republic, where seas are up to 7 
ft. Gentle to moderate trade winds are elsewhere. Seas are in 
the 4 to 6 ft range over the central and southwestern Caribbean, 
with 3 to 5 ft seas over the eastern and far NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, the aforementioned dissipating frontal boundary
will gradually dissipate tonight. Fresh to strong trade 
winds will pulse in the south-central Caribbean and near the 
coast of Colombia into the weekend. Fresh to strong winds will 
pulse in the Gulf of Honduras beginning Tue evening. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N53W to 25N55W and to the northern 
Leeward Islands. Fresh to strong SE winds are noted ahead of the 
front, north of 26N and west of 45W, where seas are 9 to 12 ft. 
Fresh to strong W winds are behind the front, north of 28N and 
east of 70W, where seas are 12 to 15 ft. Scattered moderate 
convection is within 180 nm east of the front, north of 25N. 
Another area of fresh winds is noted behind the front south of 
21N to the Caribbean Islands. Gentle to moderate winds are noted 
elsewhere west of the front. Farther east, fresh NE to E winds 
is noted north of 21N and east of 45W, where seas are 9 to 12 
ft. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere with 6 to 8 ft 
seas. 

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will
slowly shift eastward through Wed before becoming stationary and
weakening. Strong, strong east of the front will shift east of 
the area by tonight, with strong winds behind the front remaining
N of 28N and E of 68W. Seas of 13-16 ft will gradually subside 
through Wed. High pressure will build in the wake of the front.

$$
Mora