000
AXNT20 KNHC 161804
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Jan 16 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough extends into the Atlantic through the Liberia
coast near Monrovia through 04N15W to 01N25W. An ITCZ extends 
west-southwestward from 05N28W through 05N38W to 02N45W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted near the trough from the
Equator to 04N between 18W and 25W, and up to 100 nm along either
side of ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge reaches westward from a 1023 mb high at 
central Florida to the western Bay of Campeche. Fresh with locally
strong southerly winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft are found at the
northwestern and west-central Gulf. Moderate to fresh SSE winds
with 4 to 7 ft seas exist at the Gulf of Campeche.

For the forecast, strong S return flow in the western Gulf will 
persist into tonight before diminishing. Southerly winds will then
increase across much of the Gulf Tue night and Wed ahead of a 
cold front that is forecast to enter the western Gulf Wed night. 
The front will extend from southeast Louisiana to S of Tampico, 
Mexico, by Thu morning. Fresh N winds are likely behind the front 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A dissipating frontal boundary extends from the Virgin Islands to
near the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border. Fresh to strong winds are 
found over the central Caribbean with gentle to moderate winds 
elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the central and 
western Caribbean, with 2-4 ft seas over the eastern and far NW 
Caribbean.

For the forecast, the cold front has now stalled from the Leeward
Islands to just N of Colombia. This stationary front will 
gradually dissipate through Tue night. Fresh to strong trade winds
will pulse in the south- central Caribbean and near the coast of 
Colombia into the weekend. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the
Gulf of Honduras beginning Tue evening. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N55W to the Virgin Islands. Aside 
from the gale force winds, fresh to strong winds are found both 
ahead of, and behind, the front N of 25N. Fresh to strong winds 
are also found N of 25N and east of 40W. Gentle to moderate winds 
are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 10-15 ft range over much of 
the waters N of 20N and W of 35W, with seas of 8-12 ft N of 25N 
and E of 35W. Elsewhere, seas are in the 6- ft range. 

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front extends from 31N55W to 
the Leeward Islands. The front will slowly shift eastward through 
midweek before becoming stationary and weakening. Strong S winds E
of the front will move E of the area by tonight, with strong 
winds behind the front remaining N of 28N and E of 68W. Seas of 13
to 16 ft will gradually subside through midweek. High pressure 
will build in the wake of the front.

$$

Forecaster Chan