145 AXNT20 KNHC 160834 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Jan 16 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... W Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 31N57W to the Virgin Islands. Gale force winds east of the front and north of 28N will diminish this morning. Seas are peaking near 16 ft in this area. Both winds and seas will gradually decrease the next couple of days. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters Forecast at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. Both products are issued by the National Hurricane Center. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 04N07W to 03N14W. The ITCZ extends from 03N14W to 00N46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03S to 06N between 14W and 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure prevails across the area. Fresh to strong southerly return flow prevails over the waters west of 90W, with light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range over the NW Gulf, and 4-6 ft elsewhere W of 90W. East of 90W, seas are in the 2-4 ft range. For the forecast, strong S return flow in the western Gulf will persist through tonight before diminishing. Southerly winds will freshen across much of the Gulf Tue night and Wed ahead of a cold front that is forecast to enter the western Gulf Wed night. The front will extend from southeast Louisiana to Tampico, Mexico by Thu morning. Fresh N winds are likely behind the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... A dissipating frontal boundary extends from the Virgin Islands to the central Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds are found over the central Caribbean with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the central and western Caribbean, with 2-4 ft seas over the eastern and far NW Caribbean. For the forecast, the front will dissipate over the NE waters by midweek. Fresh to strong trade winds will pulse in the south- central Caribbean and near the coast of Colombia through late this week. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras beginning Tue evening. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section on a West Atlantic Gale Warning. A cold front extends from 31N57W to the Virgin Islands. Aside from the gale force winds, fresh to strong winds are found both ahead of, and behind, the front N of 25N. Fresh to strong winds are also found N of 25N and east of 40W. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 10-15 ft range over much of the waters N of 20N and W of 35W, with seas of 8-12 ft N of 25N and E of 35W. Elsewhere, seas are in the 6- ft range. For the forecast W of 55W, the front will slowly shift eastward through midweek before becoming stationary and weakening. Gale force S winds east of the front will diminish this morning. Seas of 13 to 16 ft will gradually subside through midweek. High pressure will build in the wake of the front. $$ AL