000 AXNT20 KNHC 142227 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Jan 15 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... W Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 31N67W to the coast of Eastern Cuba near 21N71W. A secondary cold front has been introduced to this analysis, extending from 31N72W to 23N78W. A pre-frontal trough extends from 30N65W to the coast of Hispaniola near 20N71W. Gale force winds will continue ahead and behind these features in the NW Discussion Waters, N of 28N and W of 64W. Seas currently peak at 16 ft on both sides of the front. Seas 8 ft or greater are north of 24N and W of 58W. Conditions will gradually improve on Mon and Tue, with seas subsiding below 12 ft by the middle of next week. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to the coast of Brazil near 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 150 nm on either side of the boundaries. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure prevails across the Gulf waters. Fresh N winds prevail in the E Gulf, with moderate N winds in the central Gulf and gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are 8-11 ft in the eastern Gulf, 6-8 ft in the central Gulf, and 4-6 ft in the western Gulf. For the forecast, high pressure continues to build across the Gulf. Fresh winds across the eastern Gulf will gradually decrease into tonight. Strong S return flow will develop in the western Gulf by Sun morning, with winds diminishing again by Mon night. Looking ahead, a cold front is forecast to enter the western Gulf Wed night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends from the coast of eastern Cuba near 20N78W to the coast of Honduras near 16N83W. Fresh to strong N winds and 5-7 ft seas prevail north of the front, with 8-9 ft seas noted in the Yucatan Channel. Elsewhere in the Caribbean, gentle trades prevail with 4-5 ft seas. For the forecast, the front will reach from Hispaniola to 12N81W early Sun and from the Virgin Islands to 15N70W early Mon. Fresh N winds will prevail in the wake of the front. Strong N winds are developing just E of Nicaragua and will persist into Sun. Fresh to strong northeast to east trade winds will pulse in the south- central Caribbean and near the coast of Colombia Sun through late next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a W Atlantic Gale Warning and the associated cold front. Conditions across the W Atlantic are described in the SPECIAL FEATURES section. E of 60W, the tropical Atlantic is dominated by subtropical high pressures centered north of the area, with moderate to fresh trades noted across the basin. Seas are generally 5-7 ft, except from 20N to 27N between 22W and 41W where seas are 8-10 ft in ENE swell. A trough extends from 31N40W to 26N44W, accompanied by scattered showers. For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will move E and reach from near 31N55W to the Virgin Islands early Mon before becoming stationary and weakening. Strong to gale force winds will prevail on both sides of the front through tonight. The gales will continue E of the front through the remainder of the weekend. Seas of 13 to 17 ft are expected to continue behind the front through the weekend before gradually subsiding next week. High pressure will build over the western Atlantic early next week. $$ ERA