000 AXNT20 KNHC 140831 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Jan 14 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... WESTERN ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: A strong cold front extends from 31N72W to central Cuba. Winds have increased to gale- force off NE Florida, mainly north of 29N and W of 78W. Gales will move eastward through the weekend, developing ahead and behind the front. Seas are forecast to build behind the front to near 15 ft by late today and ahead of the front to near 16 ft by Sun. Conditions will gradually improve on Mon and Tue, with seas subsiding below 12 ft by the middle of next week. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 09N16W to 03N17W. The ITCZ continues from 03N17W to 00N47W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 06N between 09W and 30W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure prevails across the Gulf waters. Fresh to strong winds prevail over the eastern Gulf as well as the far SW Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to fresh winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 10-13 ft range over the eastern Gulf and 7-10 ft over the western Gulf. For the forecast, high pressure is building across the Gulf in the wake of a cold front which moved SE of the area. Strong winds across the Gulf will decrease from W to E today. Strong S return flow will develop in the NW Gulf by Sun, with winds diminishing again by Mon night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends from central Cuba to eastern Honduras. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 6-8 ft prevail west of the front. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere across the Caribbean, with seas of 2-5 ft. For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast to east trade winds will pulse in the south-central Caribbean and near the coast of Colombia Sun through late next week. A cold front in the NW Caribbean will move SE through the weekend, reaching from Hispaniola to the SW Caribbean by early Sun. The front will continue moving through the NE Caribbean into Mon, while gradually weakening. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES above for more on a Gale Warning associated with a cold front over the western Atlantic. A cold front extends from 31N72W to central Cuba. Strong to gale force winds are west of the front, with strong to near-gale force winds east of the front N of 23N. Seas over these areas range from 7-11 ft. Elsewhere over the discussion waters, gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 6-8 ft, are noted N of 20N and W of 40W. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 7-9 ft, are across the remainder of the discussion waters. For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will move E through the waters into the start of next week. Strong to gale force southerly winds will prevail ahead of the front this weekend. Strong winds are also expected behind the front, with seas building to 12 to 15 ft. A period of NW gales will occur behind the front offshore NE Florida today. $$ AL