000 AXNT20 KNHC 132328 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Jan 14 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... SW GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING: A strong cold front extends from the SW Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula. The tight pressure gradient due to a 1032 mb high pressure system over northern Mexico supports gale-force northerly winds off Veracruz, while fresh to strong winds prevail elsewhere behind the front. A recent scatterometer satellite pass also verified these winds in the SW Bay of Campeche. Seas are peaking to 13 ft off Veracruz. Winds and seas will diminish below warning thresholds by early Sat. WESTERN ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: A strong cold front has entered the western Atlantic, extending from 31N79W to 28N80W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass depicts strong to near-gale SW winds ahead of the frontal boundary. Winds will increase to gale-force off NE Florida tonight behind the front mainly north of 29N and W of 78W. Gales will move eastward through the weekend, developing ahead and behind the front. Seas are forecast to build behind the front to near 15 ft by late Sat and ahead of the front to near 16 ft by Sun. Conditions will gradually improve on Mon and Tue, with seas dropping below 12 ft by the middle of next week. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Liberia near 06N10W to 03N26W. The ITCZ extends from 03N26W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is observed south of 06N and east of 30W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES above for more on a Gale Warning over the SW Gulf of Mexico. A strong cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico stretches from SW Florida to the NW Yucatan Peninsula. Behind the front, the dry and cold arctic airmass moving over the warmer Gulf waters result in stratocumulus clouds covering most of the basin. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that fresh to strong northerly winds are present behind the cold front, except for the gale-force winds occurring off Veracruz and covered in the Special Features section. Seas are 8-15 ft in these waters. Ahead of the front, moderate W-SW winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the front will move SE of the basin tonight, as high pressure builds into the Gulf. Fresh to strong NW to N winds follow the front, with gales offshore Veracruz, Mexico. The gales will diminish tonight, with the strong winds decreasing from W to E Sat. Strong S return flow will develop in the NW Gulf by Sun, with diminish winds again by Mon night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front is entering the NW Caribbean with scattered showers ahead of it. To the east, isolated patches of low-level moisture moving across the Caribbean Sea are generating some shower activity, especially in the Windward Passage region. A generally dry airmass dominates most of the basin, suppressing the development of deep convection. A recent scatterometer satellite pass depict moderate to fresh easterly trade winds in the central and eastern Caribbean Sea. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft, with the highest seas occurring offshore NW Colombia. Light to gentle northerly winds and slight seas are prevalent in the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast to east trade winds will pulse in the south-central Caribbean and near the coast of Colombia Sun through late next week. The cold front will move SE through the weekend, reaching from Hispaniola to the SW Caribbean by early Sun. The front will continue moving through the NE Caribbean into Mon, while gradually weakening. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES above for more on a Gale Warning associated with the cold front entering the western Atlantic. The cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico has now pushed into the offshore waters of NE Florida. Scattered moderate convection is noted ahead of the frontal boundary, mainly west of 68W. Recent scatterometer wind data indicate that the convection is generating wind gusts to gale force. Overall, fresh to strong southerly winds are evident ahead of the frontal boundary, mainly north of 26N and west of 67W. Fresh to strong winds are noted behind the frontal boundary. Seas are 8-10 ft north of 27N and west of 67W. Farther southeast, a weak surface trough is draped across the SE Bahamas, extending from 24N70W to 22N73W with scattered showers. Satellite-derived wind data depict fresh to strong E-SE winds within the strongest convection. The rest of the western tropical Atlantic, W of 55W, is dominated by a 1034 mb high pressure system centered N of the area, supporting moderate or weaker E-SE winds and moderate seas. A cold front extends from 31N42W to 27N49W, where it becomes a trough to 23N60W. Scattered moderate convection is noted ahead of the frontal boundary north of 27N between the front and 35W. A weak surface trough is located east of the Lesser Antilles, along 58W and extending from 13N-18N. Scattered showers are seen about 100 nm on other side of the trough axis. The remainder of the central and eastern tropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1030 mb high pressure system between the Azores and the Madeira Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures over western Africa and the deep tropics sustain a large area of fresh to locally strong NE-E winds, mainly north of 20N and east of 33W. Seas in these waters are 6-10 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast W of 55W, the front will move E through the waters into the start of next week. Strong southerly winds ahead of the front will increase to gales N of 28N this weekend. Strong winds are also expected behind the front, with seas building to 12 to 15 ft. A period of NW gales will occurring tonight into Sat behind the front offshore NE Florida. $$ ERA