000 AXNT20 KNHC 121041 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Jan 12 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is forecast to enter the northwestern and north-central Gulf Thursday morning. It will reach from Tampa Bay, Florida southwestward to near Veracruz, Mexico Fri morning. The gradient between the front and strong high pressure building in behind it will bring near gale to gale force northerly winds off Veracruz from Fri morning through late Fri evening. Seas will build and reach 8 to 10 ft by early Fri morning, then to a higher range of 10-14 ft early Fri afternoon. Winds and seas will start to diminish late Fri night into early Sat as the high pressure slides eastward allowing for the gradient to relax. Please read the latest NWS Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php and the High Seas Forecast at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends west-southwestward from near the Sierra Leone/Liberia border into the Atlantic to near 04N21W, where overnight scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to 03N30W and to near 02N40W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is increasing within 120 nm south of trough and ITCZ between 14W-25W and between 27W-36W. Similar convection is within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 20W-27W and between 28W-37W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more information on an upcoming Gale Warning. A surface ridge extends west-southwestward from a 1022 mb high over central Florida to near Veracruz, Mexico. Moderate to fresh south to southwest winds are over the NW Gulf, and moderate to fresh east to southeast winds are near and along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula per latest ASCAT data and buoy observations from the NW Gulf. Seas in the range of 4-6 ft are over the NW Gulf, and over the south-central Gulf near the Yucatan Peninsula. Gentle to moderate southerly winds, with lower seas in the range of 2-4 ft are elsewhere over the Gulf. For the forecast, high pressure over the area will shift eastward today in response to a cold front that will move off the Texas coast this morning. Fresh southerly return flow is expected ahead of the front. Strong northerly winds and building seas will follow the front, which is forecast to reach from near Tampa Bay, Florida to Veracruz, Mexico by early Fri. Winds to gale force and rough seas are possible off Veracruz behind the front on Fri, with fresh to strong northerly winds elsewhere. Winds and seas will diminish from W to E into Sat as the front moves southeast of the area. Afterward, fresh to strong southerly return flow is expected to develop across the western Gulf on Sun along with building seas. The fresh to strong return will expand eastward through Mon, then diminish to moderate Mon night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface ridge associated to a 1022 mb high center located over central Florida continues to control the trade wind regime across the entire basin. Moderate to fresh trade winds are over the south-central basin, with fresh to strong northeast to east winds near and offshore the coast of Colombia. Seas in this part of the basin are in the 5-7 ft range, except for slighter higher seas of 6-8 ft seas near the coast of Colombia. Gentle to moderate northeast to east trade winds, with seas of 3-5 ft are over the remainder of the sea. Isolated light showers moving quickly westward are possible in the eastern Caribbean and in the far southwestern part of the sea near the coast of Costa Rica. For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong northeast to east trade winds in the south-central Caribbean and near the coast of Colombia will continue through Fri night, then return Sun night through early next week. Moderate to fresh trade winds over most of the basin will continue through this morning. A cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel by Fri night followed by fresh to locally strong NW to N winds. The front will reach from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras on Sat afternoon, and from Haiti to near Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua Sat night into Sun. The front could reach the northeastern Caribbean Sun night through Mon night as it weakens to a shear line. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends southwestward from the north-central Atlantic across 31N51W and to near 23N63W. Fresh southwest winds are ahead of the front reaching eastward to near 48W. Seas with these winds are 5-7 ft. Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted within 60 nm east of the front north of 27N. This activity is being aided by rather vigorous jet stream dynamics ahead of a very pronounced upper-level trough that is behind the frontal boundary. An area of scattered showers and isolated weakening thunderstorms is seen over the waters east of northeastern Brazil from about 01N to 10N between 43W and the coast of northeastern Brazil. Low-level speed convergence of northeast trade winds is helping to sustain this activity. Elsewhere, Atlantic high pressure is supporting mostly gentle winds, with seas of 5-8 ft seas north of 26N between 35W and 60W. Seas of 3-6 ft are present west of 60W, with the exception of lower seas of 2-3 ft west of 75W. Seas of 1 ft or less are over the sheltered waters in the vicinity of the Bahama Islands. Gentle to moderate northeast to east winds are over this part of the area, with the exception of gentle to moderate southwest winds offshore northeast Florida. In the far southeastern part of the area, mostly fresh northeast to east trade winds are noted. Seas of 7-10 ft due to a long-period northeast swell are present north of 05N between the African coast and 35W, and also from 04N to 26N between 35W and 53W. Gentle to locally moderate southerly winds, with seas of 4-6 ft due to long-period southerly swell continue elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned stationary front will begin to shift eastward as a cold front once again starting this morning, moving east of 55W by early this evening, with high pressure building in behind it. A strong cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast early Fri. As the front moves eastward across the western Atlantic, expect increasing winds and building seas. Fresh to strong winds are forecast on either side of the front during the upcoming weekend. These winds could reach gale force across the waters N of 29N late Sat into early on Sun. Seas of 12-15 ft are anticipated with the strongest winds NE of the Bahamas. $$ Forecaster Aguirre