958 AXNT20 KNHC 120550 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Jan 12 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is forecast to enter the northwestern and north-central Gulf Thursday morning. It will reach from Tampa Bay, Florida southwestward to near Veracruz, Mexico Fri morning. This will introduce near-gale to gale force northerly winds off Veracruz behind the front from Fri morning through late Fri evening. Seas will build and reach 8 to 10 ft by early Fri morning, then higher at 10 to 12 ft early Fri afternoon. Winds and seas will start to diminish late Fri night and early Sat morning. Please read the latest NWS Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php and the High Seas Forecast at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough extends west-southwestward from near the Sierra Leone/Liberia border into the Atlantic to near 04N22W. An ITCZ then continues westward from 04N22W through 03N30W to north of Brazil at 02N40W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted up to 80 nm north, and 220 nm south of both features. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more information on a Gale Warning. A surface ridge extends west-southwestward from a 1022 mb high over central Florida to near Veracruz, Mexico. Moderate to fresh SE to SW winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are present at the northwestern and south-central Gulf, near the Yucatan Peninsula. Gentle to moderate southerly winds with 2 to 4 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Gulf. For the forecast, high pressure over central Florida will shift into the western Atlantic as a cold front moves off the coast of Texas by Thu morning. Fresh southerly return flow is expected ahead of the front while strong northerly winds and building seas will follow the front. The front is forecast to reach from near Tampa Bay, Florida to Veracruz, Mexico by early Fri. Near- gale to gale winds and rough seas are probable off Veracruz behind the front Fri and Fri evening, with fresh to strong northerly winds elsewhere. Winds and seas will diminish from west to east into Sat as the front moves southeast of the area. Afterward, fresh to strong southerly return flow is expected to develop across the western Gulf on Sun along with building seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface ridge related to a 1022 mb high over Florida continues to sustain a trade-wind regime for the entire basin. Moderate to fresh with locally strong ENE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft exit at the south-central basin, north of Colombia. Gentle to moderate ENE to E winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, gentle to moderate trade winds are expected across most the basin through late tonight. Pulsing fresh to strong winds are forecast across the south-central Caribbean tonight through Fri night as the surface ridge strengthens a little. A cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel by Fri night, followed by fresh to locally strong NW to N winds. The front will reach from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras on Sat afternoon, and from Haiti to near Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua Sat night into Sun. The front could reach the northeastern Caribbean Sun night through Mon night as it weakens to a shear line. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends southwestward from the north-central Atlantic across 31N51W to well north of the Leeward Islands at 27N62W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring up to 100 nm northwest, and 60 nm southeast of this boundary. Convergent trades ahead of a surge are triggering widely scattered moderate convection from 01N to 05N between 43W and the northeast Brazilian coast, and up to 160 nm offshore from the Suriname and French Guiana coast. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are evident near the stationary front, north of 26N between 46W and 55W. Otherwise, the Atlantic Ridge is supporting mostly gentle winds with 4 to 7 ft seas north of 26N between 35W and 60W, and also north of 20N between 60W and the Georgia/Florida coast. To the south and east, moderate to fresh NNE to ENE trades and seas at 7 to 10 ft are present north of 05N between the African coast and 35W, and also from 04N to 26N between 35W and 50W. From 06N to 26N between 50W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate ENE trades and with 5 to 7 ft seas are found. Gentle with locally moderate southerly and monsoonal winds with seas at 4 to 6 ft in southerly swell prevail elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned stationary front will begin to shift eastward as a cold front once again starting Thu morning, moving east of 35W by Thu night with high pressure following its wake. A strong cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast early Fri. As the front moves eastward across the western Atlantic, expect increasing winds and building seas. Fresh to strong winds are forecast on either side of the front during the upcoming weekend. These winds could reach gale force across the waters N of 29N late Sat into early on Sun. Seas of 12 to 15 ft are anticipated with the strongest winds NE of the Bahamas. $$ Forecaster Chan