000 AXNT20 KNHC 112309 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Jan 12 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2215 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is forecast to move off the Texas coast Thursday morning, reaching near Tampa Bay, Florida, to Veracruz, Mexico, by early Fri. High pressure building over the western Gulf will support gale force NW-N winds off Veracruz behind the front Fri into early on Fri, with fresh to strong northerly winds elsewhere. Seas will build to 8-12 ft off Veracruz and 4-7 ft elsewhere behind the front. Winds and seas will diminish from west to east Fri night into Sat as the front moves southeast of the area. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends westward from near the Sierra Leone/Liberia border into the Atlantic to near 06N14W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues westward to 04N30W and to 01N47W northeast of the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm either side of the ITCZ between 14W and 37W, and from 03N to 07N between 42W and 51W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more information on the Gale Warning for the SW portion of the basin off Veracruz, Mexico. High pressure over the Gulf, anchored by a 1022 mb high offshore SW Florida near 26.5N83.5W, continues to be the main feature influencing the wind and weather regime across the Gulf, keeping dry and stable atmospheric conditions. The gradient associated with the high pressure is allowing for moderate fresh S-SW winds in the NW basin, where recent buoy observations are recording 3-5 ft seas. Gentle to moderate south to southwest winds are over the NE Gulf, shifting to more easterly return flow south of 25N. Mainly moderate SE winds are noted in the SW Gulf. Seas are 3 ft or less outside of the NW basin. For the forecast, high pressure over the Gulf waters will shift toward the western Atlantic as a cold front moves off the coast of Texas by Thu morning. Fresh southerly return flow is expected ahead of the front. Strong northerly winds and building seas will follow the front, which is forecast to reach from near Tampa Bay, Florida to Veracruz, Mexico by early Fri. Winds to gale force and rough seas are possible off Veracruz behind the front Fri into early on Fri night, with fresh to strong northerly winds elsewhere. Winds and seas will diminish from west to east into Sat as the front moves southeast of the area. Afterward, fresh to strong southerly return flow is expected to develop across the western Gulf on Sun along with building seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure northwest of the basin over the SE Gulf of Mexico combined with lower pressure over northern Colombia results in a pressure gradient that is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds across the western half of the Caribbean. Moderate NE-E winds are found in the eastern half of the basin, except E-SE east of 65W. Seas are 4-6 ft in the south-central Caribbean, and 2-4 ft elsewhere. Fairly dry and tranquil conditions prevail, except just offshore Panama, where the far eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough is supporting some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. For the forecast, gentle to moderate trade winds are expected across most the basin through tonight. Pulsing fresh to strong winds are forecast across the south-central Caribbean tonight through Fri night as high pressure N of the area strengthens a little. A cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel by Fri night followed by fresh to locally strong NW to N winds. The front will reach from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras on Sat afternoon, and from Haiti to near Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua Sat night into Sun. The front could reach Puerto Rico by Sun night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from the north-central Atlantic southwestward to 27N55W where it transitions to dissipating to 23N62W, with a trough from there to near the Mona Passage. Moderate to fresh SW winds are north of 27N within 120 nm ahead of the front. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted within 120 nm either side of these features under convergent southerly flow. A cold front extends from northwest of Bermuda to 31N74W and continues as stationary to the South Carolina Low Country. A trough is southeast of this front extending from 31N73W to near the northern Bahamas. Moderate to fresh westerly winds are noted north of 30N between 65W and 75W near the front. Otherwise, a weak ridge extends between all of these features, extending from the SE Gulf of Mexico to across the central Bahamas to 31N57W. Mainly light to gentle winds are under the ridge elsewhere west of the stationary front, locally moderate from the southeast Bahamas to the Windward Passage. Seas of 3-5 ft in SE swell prevail west of 70W, with 4-6 ft between 55W and 70W. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic, east of the stationary front, is dominated by 1036 my high pressure located between the Azores and the Canary Islands. The pressure gradient between the high and lower pressures in the deeper tropics is sustaining moderate to fresh NE winds over this area, locally strong through and downwind of the Canary Island passages. Seas are mainly 6-8 ft in NE-E swell, except 7-10 ft south of 20N between 30W and 50W. For the forecast west of 55W, a weakening frontal boundary extending from 31N50W to Dominican Republic will shift east of the area late Thu. High pressure will follow in behind the front. A strong cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast early Fri. As the front moves eastward across the forecast waters, expect increasing winds and building seas. Fresh to strong winds are forecast on either side of the front during the upcoming weekend. These winds could reach minimal gale force across the waters N of 29N late Sat into early on Sun. Seas of 12-15 ft are expected with the strongest winds NE of the Bahamas. $$ Lewitsky