000 AXNT20 KNHC 111746 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Jan 11 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1735 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is forecast to move off the Texas coast Thursday morning, reaching near Tampa Bay, Florida, to Veracruz, Mexico, by early Fri. High pressure building over the western Gulf will support possible gale force N-NE winds and rough seas off Veracruz behind the front Friday into early on Friday night, with fresh to strong northerly winds elsewhere. Winds and seas will diminish from W to E into Saturday as the front moves southeast of the area. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends westward from near the Sierra Leone/Liberia border into the Atlantic to near 06N15W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues westward to 05N30W and to the 01N46W. Scattered moderate convection is within 150 nm south of the ITCZ between 20W and 37W. A similar area of convection is also noted from 03N to 08N between 41W and the coastline of South America. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more information on the Gale Force Wind Warning for the SW portion of the basin. High pressure over the Gulf, anchored by a 1022 mb high near the Florida Big Bend, continues to be the main feature influencing the wind and weather regime across the Gulf, keeping dry and stable atmospheric conditions. The gradient associated with the high pressure is allowing for moderate fresh S-SW winds in the NW basin, where recent buoy observations are recording 3 to 5 ft seas. Gentle to moderate south to southwest winds are over the NE Gulf, shifting to more easterly return flow south of 25N per a recent ASCAT data pass and buoy observations. Mainly moderate E-SE winds are noted in the SW Gulf, with locally fresh breezes in the extreme southern Bay of Campeche. Seas remain below 3 ft, except in the Bay of Campeche, seas are up to 4 ft. For the forecast, the high pressure over the Gulf waters will shift toward the western Atlantic as a cold front moves off the coast of Texas by Thu morning. Fresh southerly return flow is expected ahead of the front. Strong northerly winds and building seas will follow the front, which is forecast to reach from near Tampa Bay, Florida, to Veracruz, Mexico, by early Fri. Gale force winds are expected in the SW basin behind the front, described in the special features sections above. Winds and seas will diminish from W to E into Sat as the front moves southeast of the area. Afterward, fresh to strong southerly return flow is expected to develop across the western Gulf on Sun along with building seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A rather light pressure gradient is maintaining generally gentle to moderate E-NE trade winds over the eastern and central basin noted in a recent scatterometer pass, where seas are 2 to 4 ft. The data pass also noted moderate to fresh NE-E winds over the far south-central and southwestern Caribbean, as well as in the lee of Cuba, where seas are 4 to 5 ft. Fairly dry and tranquil conditions prevail, except just offshore Panama, where the far eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoonal trough is supporting some scattered showers. For the forecast, gentle to moderate trade winds are expected across most of the basin through tonight. Pulsing fresh to strong winds are expected at the south-central Caribbean tonight through Fri night as the Bermuda High strengthens a little. A cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel by Fri night, followed by fresh to locally strong NW to N winds. The front will reach from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras on Sat afternoon, and from Haiti to near Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua Sat night into Sun. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from the north-central Atlantic southwestward to 31N50W and to near 25N65W. The southern section of this front has become stationary and is weakening. Fresh to strong southwest winds are N of 30N and east of the front to near 34W, with possible seas of 6-8 ft. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are present N of 24N and east of the front. Convergent southerly flow is supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 180 nm east of the front north of 25N. A surface trough is analyzed from the tail end of the stationary front near 23N62W to Hispaniola near 20N69W. Isolated showers are possible in the vicinity of this trough. Elsewhere, high pressure behind the front is keeping light to gentle winds and 3 to 5 ft seas in place west of 60W. Otherwise, the pressure gradient between the Azores high and lower pressures in the deep tropics is sustaining moderate to fresh NE winds over the basin south of 30N and mainly east 50W. Seas are 7 to 9 ft and up to 10 ft in the strongest winds, mainly S of 10N between 30W and 45W. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will reach from near 29N55W to 20N67W early this evening and continue to weaken as it shifts E of the area late Thu. High pressure will follow behind the front. A strong cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast early Fri. As the front moves eastward across the forecast waters, expect increasing winds and building seas. Fresh to strong winds are forecast on either side of the front during the upcoming weekend. These winds could reach minimal gale force across the waters N of 29N late Sat into early on Sun. Seas of 12-15 ft are expected, with the strongest winds NE of the Bahamas. $$ Mora