000 AXNT20 KNHC 100519 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Jan 10 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the Sierra Leone/Liberia border, and extends southwestward to 01N21W. Scattered moderate convection is seen south of Liberia from 01N to 03N between 08W and 12W. An ITCZ continues from 01N21W through 02N35W to east of Amapa State, Brazil at 04N47W. Widely scattered moderate convection is present near and up to 100 nm north of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends southward from a 1023 mb high over Mississippi to the south-central Gulf. Moderate NE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are seen at the eastern Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft exist elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the Gulf waters through Thu morning, at which time a strong cold front is forecast to emerge off the coast of Texas. Fresh southerly return flow is expected ahead of the front. Strong northerly winds and building seas will follow the front forecast to reach from near Tampa Bay, Florida to Veracruz, Mexico by early Fri. Winds to gale force and rough seas are possible off Veracruz behind the front by Fri, with fresh to strong northerly winds elsewhere. Winds and seas will diminish into Sat as the front moves southeast of the area. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1027 mb high at the central Atlantic is channeling trade winds across the entire basin. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are seen over the south-central and eastern basin. Gentle to moderate NE to ENE winds with 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the rest of the basin. For the forecast, gentle to moderate trade winds are expected across most of the basin through Wed as the high pressure weakens and shifts eastward. Winds will increase to between moderate and fresh over the northwestern Caribbean and south of Cuba Wed through late Thu as high pressure builds over the Gulf of Mexico. Looking ahead, fresh to strong NW to N winds will follow a cold front moving into the northwestern Caribbean late Fri. This front will reach from Hispaniola to the southwestern Caribbean by Sat night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front curves southwestward from northwest of Bermuda across 31N69W and the central Bahamas to western Cuba. Widely scattered showers are found near and up to 60 nm northwest of the front. Convergent southerly winds east and southeast of the front are causing scattered showers and thunderstorms north of 23N between 62W and 70W. A surface trough is triggering isolated thunderstorms over the southeast Bahamas and Haiti. Another cold front reaches southwestward from the Azores across 31N38W to 28N47W, then continues as a dissipating stationary front to 25N58W. Patchy showers are occurring up to 70 nm north, and 50 nm south of this boundary. Please refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. Moderate to fresh SE to SW to NW winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft are evident near the first cold front north of 26N between 65W and the Georgia/Florida coast. Gentle to locally moderate winds with 4 to 6 ft seas exist near and east of the second frontal boundary north of 24N between the northwestern African coast and 65W. Farther south, moderate to fresh NE to ENE trades and seas of 6 to 9 ft dominate from 05N to 24N/26N between central African coast and 65W/the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle monsoonal winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will reach from near 31N62W to the southeastern Bahamas by Tue morning, and from 29N55W to 21N70W by Tue evening. A reinforcing cold front will move into the region Wed, merge with the aforementioned front, and then stall and dissipate from 31N55W to eastern Cuba by late Thu. Looking ahead, increasing winds and seas will accompany a strong cold front that will move off the northeast Florida coast early Fri. Gale force winds may briefly occur ahead of the front on Fri, while strong W to NW winds will occur behind the front that is forecast to reach from near Bermuda to central Cuba by early Sat. This front should reach from near 31N65W through 25N68W to Hispaniola by late Sat night. Expect seas to build and peak near 12 ft, north and northeast of the Bahamas Sat and Sat night. $$ Forecaster Chan