000 AXNT20 KNHC 091027 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Jan 09 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near Freetown, Sierra Leone then passes through a 1011 mb low located near 02N18W and to 01N20W. Scattered moderate convection is seen near these features from the Equator to 07N between the Sierra Leone/Liberia coast and 21W. The ITCZ continues from 01N20W through 02N30W to 01N42W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 02N to 05N between 37W-42W, and well to the NW of the ITCZ within 30 nm of line from 05N45W to 05N49W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from the far western Florida panhandle near Pensacola, southwestward to 28N91W, where it transitions to a stationary front to inland the northeast coast of Mexico. A pre-frontal trough stretches southwestward from northern Florida Panhandle to 28N86W and southward to 24N86W. Isolated showers are present near and behind the fronts over the northwestern Gulf, and also near the trough across the northeastern Gulf. A surface trough is triggering isolated thunderstorms at the west-central Gulf. Another surface trough is causing similar conditions at the eastern Gulf of Campeche. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed in the Straits of Florida along the western section of a stationary front that extends from the Atlantic Ocean westward to near central Cuba. Moderate N to NE winds with 3-4 ft seas are found over the northwestern Gulf and eastern Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle winds and seas in the range of 1-3 ft prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will stall over the northern and eastern Gulf today through early Tue, and lift NE as a warm front later during Tue and through Wed night. The stationary portion will weaken and dissipate through tonight. Light to gentle variable winds will dominate the basin afterward through Thu morning when a strong cold front is forecast to emerge off the coast of Texas. Fresh southerly flow will return to the Texas coast Wed into Thu ahead of this front, and strong NW winds and building seas will follow the front over the northwest Gulf Thu night. Looking ahead, the front will reach from near Tampa Bay, Florida to Veracruz, Mexico by early Fri. Winds to gale force and rough seas are possible off Veracruz Fri behind the front, with fresh to strong northerly winds elsewhere. Winds and seas will diminish into Sat as the front moves southeast of the area. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The gradient associated to a 1024 mb Bermuda High continues to sustain a easterly trade-wind pattern across the entire basin. Moderate to fresh with locally strong winds and seas of 5-6 ft are evident at the south-central basin. Gentle to moderate northeast to east winds along with 4-5 ft seas are seen over the north- central and eastern basin. Gentle to moderate northeast to east trade winds along with seas of 3-4 ft prevail for the rest of the basin. For the forecast, the Bermuda High will prolong moderate to fresh winds across the eastern and central Caribbean today, with locally strong winds in the Windward Passage and off the Colombian coast. Winds will diminish to between gentle and moderate over most of the basin Mon through Wed as the high pressure weakens and shifts eastward. Winds will increase again, reaching moderate to fresh over the northwestern Caribbean and south of Cuba Wed through late Thu as high pressure builds over the Gulf of Mexico. Looking ahead, fresh NW winds will follow a cold front moving into the northwestern Caribbean late Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front curves southwestward from the north-central Atlantic across 31N47W to 27N55W and to 25N66W, where it transitions to a stationary front to 24N73W, to across the central Bahamas and to the Straits of Florida, reaching to near northwestern Cuba. Fresh to strong southwest winds are within 360 nm E of the cold front N of 30N, while fresh to strong northwest winds are west of the cold front to 50W and N of 30N. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range, both E and W of the cold front. Patches of broken low cloud and possible isolated showers are within 120 nm N of the stationary front E of 70W. Scattered showers and isolated are noted within 120 nm N of the stationary front W of about 70W, including the northwestern Bahamas and Florida Straits. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen within about 120 nm E of the front and N of 28N. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms developed during the overnight hours in the Straits of Florida along and near the stationary boundary. A surface trough, in combination with an upper-level disturbance that is riding eastward along a jet stream branch, is sustaining an area of broken to overcast low and mid-level clouds with embedded scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 19N to 23N between 67W-72W. Please refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. Elsewhere, the surface ridge associated with the Azores and Bermuda Highs is sustaining gentle to moderate easterly winds with 6-8 ft seas in northerly swell north of 27N between the northwest African coast and 65W. Gentle to moderate northeast to southeast winds and seas of 4-6 ft are present north of 20N between 65W and the Florida/Georgia coast. Farther south, moderate to fresh northeast to northeast to east trade winds and seas of 6-9 ft are evident from 03N to 27N between the central African coast and the Lesser Antilles/65W. Light to gentle monsoonal winds with 3-6 ft seas prevail for the remainder of Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will shift east of 55W this morning, while the stationary portion dissipates. High pressure building behind the front will support moderate to fresh trade winds into tonight, mainly south of 22N. Another cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast early Mon, then weaken and nearly stall as it reaches from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by Tue. A reinforcing front will move into the region Wed, merge with the previous front, and then stall and dissipate from 31N55W to eastern Cuba by late Thu. Looking ahead, increasing winds and waves will accompany a strong cold front that will move off the northeast Florida coast early Fri. The front will reach from near Bermuda to central Cuba by early Sat. $$ Aguirre