000 AXNT20 KNHC 082035 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Jan 9 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 06N18W. The ITCZ continues from 06N18W to 03N23W to 04N50W. Scattered moderate convection is observed within 210 nm on either side of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends over the NW Gulf from W Louisiana to N Mexico. Gentle to moderate winds prevail west of the front. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere. Seas are in the 1-2 ft range over the NE Gulf and 3-4 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, the cold front will stall over the northern and eastern Gulf through Mon and dissipate early Tue. Light to gentle variable winds will dominate the basin afterward through Thu morning when a strong cold front is forecast to emerge off the coast of Texas. Fresh southerly flow will return to the Texas coast Wed into Thu ahead of this front, and strong NW winds and building seas will follow the front over the northwest Gulf Thu night. Looking ahead, the front will reach from near Tampa Bay, Florida to Veracruz, Mexico by early Fri. Winds to gale force and rough seas are possible off Veracruz Fri behind the front, with fresh to strong northerly winds elsewhere. Winds and seas will diminish into Sat as the front moves southeast of the area. CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate to fresh winds are over the central Caribbean, with moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the central Caribbean and 2-4 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, surface ridging north of the area will support the continuation of moderate to fresh winds across the eastern and central Caribbean tonight, with locally strong winds in the Windward Passage and off the Colombian coast. Winds will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds over most of the basin Mon through Wed as the high pressure weakens and shifts eastward. Winds will increase again to moderate to fresh speeds over the northwest Caribbean and south of Cuba Wed through late Thu as high pressure builds over the Gulf of Mexico. Looking ahead, fresh NW winds will follow a cold front that will move into the northwest Caribbean late Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 30N55W to 26N65W, where it transitions to a stationary front to the central Bahamas. Fresh to strong winds prevail within 120 nm either side of the front N of 29N. High pressure prevails elsewhere across the discussion waters. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere N of 20N, with moderate to fresh winds S of 20N. Seas in the 5-8 ft range prevail N of 20N, with 7-9 ft seas prevailing S of 20N. For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will move to the central Atlantic waters tonight while the stationary tail end of the front dissipates. High pressure building behind the front will support moderate to fresh trade winds into Mon night mainly south of 22N. Another front will move off the northeast Florida coast early Mon, then weaken and nearly stall as it reaches from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by Tue. A reinforcing front will move into the region Wed, merge with the previous front, and then stall and dissipate from 31N55W to eastern Cuba by late Thu. Looking ahead, increasing winds and waves will accompany a strong cold front that will move off the northeast Florida coast early Fri. The front will reach from near Bermuda to central Cuba by early Sat. $$ AL