000 AXNT20 KNHC 071728 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Jan 7 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1710 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia near 06N10W, to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from 04N15W, to 03N20W 04N26W 02N40W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 08N southward between 10W and 60W. Isolated moderate is in the remainder of the area that is from 10N southward from 60W eastward. High level moisture is being pushed toward the NE and E, from 10N to 20N from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is within 100 nm of the coast of Mexico between the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico and 98W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is in the coastal waters of Mexico from 24N southward from 90W westward. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. A 1027 mb high pressure center is along the Alabama/Georgia near 32N. Expect moderate to locally fresh return flow, and sea heights that range from 3 feet to 5 feet, in most of the basin. The wind speeds are light to gentle and variable, and the sea heights range from 1 foot to 3 feet, near the high pressure center in the NE Gulf of Mexico. Weak high pressure over the southeast U.S. will shift east today ahead of a cold front expected to move off the Texas coast into the northwest Gulf Sun morning. The front will stall over the northwest Gulf but continue across the northeast Gulf through early Mon. Looking ahead, the front will stall over the eastern Gulf by early Tue, then dissipate through Tue night. Fresh southerly flow will return to the Texas coast by late Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough extends from Hispaniola and Puerto Rico into the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers much of the area. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate is to the west of the line that runs from the Windward Passage into the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Some 24-hour precipitation totals in inches, for the time period that ended at 07/1200 UTC, are: 0.13 in Guadeloupe, 0.12 in Trinidad, and 0.11 in San Juan in Puerto Rico. The surface pressure gradient, that is between subtropical high pressure that is to the north of the area, and lower pressure that is in the SW Caribbean Sea, have been supporting E-to-NE moderate to fresh trade winds in most of the Caribbean Sea. A localized area of strong NE winds has been pulsing, and the sea heights have been reaching 8 feet, within 180 nm of the coast of Colombia between 74W and 77W. The area that is from the Greater Antilles southward from 81W eastward in general is filled with sea heights that range from 6 feet to 7 feet. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 7 feet in the Yucatan Channel. The sea range from 3 feet to 5 feet elsewhere. Fresh easterly winds, and sea heights that range from 8 feet to 9 feet, are in the tropical Atlantic Ocean, and in the exposed passages that are between the Islands. Surface ridging north of the area will continue to support locally strong winds off the Colombian coast through Sun night. Similar winds are forecast across the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola tonight through Sun night. High pressure building in the wake of the front will support moderate to fresh NE to E winds south of Cuba through Sun evening. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish over most of the basin Mon through the middle of next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through Bermuda to 27N70W, to the central Bahamas, across Cuba, to La Isla de la Juventud of Cuba. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 300 nm to the SE of the cold front from the southern half of the Bahamas northeastward. Moderate to locally fresh winds, and sea heights that range from 5 feet to 6 feet, are in the immediate vicinity of the front N of 29N. An upper level cyclonic circulation center has been near 22N64W during the last 24 hours. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 240 nm of the upper level cyclonic circulation center in the SE quadrant. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and other isolated moderate, are elsewhere from the Greater Antilles and 20N northward from 50W westward. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are to the east of the front from 27N northward. Moderate to fresh NW winds, and sea heights that are reaching 6 feet, are affecting the NE Florida offshore waters behind the front. One 24-hour precipitation total in inches, for the time period that ended at 07/1200 UTC, is: 0.43 in Bermuda. A surface ridge extends from a 1029 mb high pressure center that is near 31N15W, to a 1028 mb high pressure center that is near 31N41W, to 29N54W, to the SE Bahamas. The wind speeds are gentle within the ridge, gradually increasing to fresh easterlies south of 22N. The sea heights range from 5 feet to 7 feet from 22N northward. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 10 feet from 22N southward. A cold front extends from Bermuda SW to the central Bahamas and western Cuba. The portion of the front north of 25N will continue to move east of the area through late today, with the southern part stalling across the central Bahamas to northwest Cuba through late Sun, before dissipating Mon. High pressure building behind the front will support moderate to fresh trade winds into early next week mainly south of 22N. Looking ahead, another front will move off the northeast Florida coast early Mon, then weaken as it reaches from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by Tue. The front will dissipate Tue night, ahead of a third, stronger front that will move off the northeast Florida coast Tue night and reach from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by late Wed. $$ mt/ec