000 AXNT20 KNHC 061800 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Jan 6 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia near 05N10W, to 05N16W. The ITCZ continues from 05N16W, to 05N20W 04N30W 03N40W, and 03N50W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 09N southward between 30W and 54W. Isolated moderate is in the remainder of the area that is from 10N southward from 60W eastward. High level moisture is being pushed toward the NE and E, from 10N to 20N from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front passes through the NW Bahamas, through the Straits of Florida, to 22N88W in the Gulf of Mexico off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 24N southward, mainly from 90W eastward. The wind speeds are NE moderate to fresh behind the front, and E of 90W, and the sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet. A surface trough is along the coast of Mexico 18N95W to 23N98W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is in the coastal waters of Mexico from 24N southward from 90W westward. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. A 1027 mb high pressure center is in SW Mississippi. Expect moderate to fresh E to SE winds, and sea heights that range from 3 feet to 5 feet, in most of the western half of the Gulf of Mexico. A cold front extending from the Straits of Florida just north of the Yucatan Channel will stall across the Yucatan Channel by late today then dissipate through Sun. Moderate to locally fresh winds are forecast in the wake of the front through Sat morning. Southerly flow around high pressure over the SE U.S. will dominate this weekend across the Gulf. These winds will diminish through Sat night ahead of the next front which will move off the Texas coast Sun morning. The front will stall over the northwest Gulf but continue across the northeast Gulf through early Mon. Looking ahead, the front will stall over the eastern Gulf by early Tue, then dissipate through Tue night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level cyclonic wind flow, from an east central Caribbean Sea trough, covers the area that is from 81W eastward. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate is in the area of the upper level cyclonic wind flow. The surface pressure gradient that is between subtropical high pressure that is to the north of the area, and lower pressure that is in the SW Caribbean Sea, has been supporting fresh trade winds in the eastern and central sections. A localized area of strong NE winds has been pulsing offshore Colombia with seas reaching 8 feet. The area that is from the Greater Antilles southward from 80W eastward in general is filled with sea heights that range from 6 feet to 8 feet. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet elsewhere. Fresh to locally strong E winds, and sea heights that range from 7 feet to 9 feet, are in the exposed Atlantic Ocean waters that are to the east of the Lesser Antilles. Moderate to fresh NE winds, and sea heights that range from 3 feet to 4 feet, are in the NW Caribbean as the surface pressure gradient tightens due to an approaching cold front. Surface ridging north of the area will continue to support locally strong winds off the Colombian coast through Sun night. Similar winds are forecast across the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola Sat night through Sun night. A weak cold front will enter the Yucatan Channel this afternoon and dissipate during the weekend. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected in the NW Caribbean through Sun evening, including the lee of Cuba. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades will prevail through the weekend, locally strong in the Tropical N Atlantic and through eastern Caribbean Passages through tonight. Moderate to rough seas in the tropical Atlantic will subside by the end of the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 31N73W, to the NW Bahamas, through the Straits of Florida, to 22N88W in the Gulf of Mexico just off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 22N64W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and widely scattered moderate to isolated strong, are from the Greater Antilles northward from 60W westward. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are to the east of the front from 27N northward. Moderate to fresh NW winds, and sea heights that are reaching 6 feet, are affecting the NE Florida offshore waters behind the front. A surface ridge extends from 31N30W, to a 1030 mb high pressure center that is near 32N36W, to 31N55W 30N64W, to the central Bahamas. Fresh to locally strong winds, and sea heights that range from 7 feet to 9 feet in a NE-to-E swell component, are from 25N southward between 37W and 70W. Gentle to moderate E winds cover the remaining subtropical waters from 37W eastward. Surface ridging over the east of 60W will continue to shift eastward today as a cold front moves across the northern Bahamas today. The front will extend from Bermuda to the central Bahamas early Sat, and exit the region Sun night. Moderate to fresh SW winds north of 27N and ahead of the front as well as NW winds behind the front will diminish early in the evening. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds will prevail south of 24N and east of the Bahamas through tonight, with locally strong winds in the approaches of the Windward Passage and N of Hispaniola. Otherwise, the next cold front is forecast to move off north Florida Sun night into Mon. $$ mt/er