000 AXNT20 KNHC 060356 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Jan 6 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0355 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W to 05N13W. The ITCZ continues from 05N13W to the equator at 45W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 01N to 05N, between 27W and 38W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from SW Florida near 26N82W to the Bay of Campeche near 20N93W. Scattered moderate convection is observed within 60 nm of the front. Behind the front, winds are moderate to fresh from the NE with 4-6 ft seas. Ahead of the front, winds are moderate with 2-4 ft seas. A 1025 mb high pressure has moved over Louisiana. This feature is causing gentle winds in the north central Gulf with slight seas. For the forecast, a cold front extending from near Fort Myers, Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche will exit the Gulf by early Fri while weakening. Moderate to locally fresh winds are forecast in the wake of the front through Fri. Return flow around high pressure over the SE U.S. will dominate this weekend, weakening Sun as the next front potentially moves into the northern Gulf while weakening. Fairly tranquil conditions are forecast early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... The gradient between subtropical high pressure north of the area and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean is supporting fresh trade winds across the eastern and central Caribbean, where seas are 5- 7 ft. In exposed Atlantic waters east of the Lesser Antilles, easterly winds are fresh to strong with 7-9 ft seas. A few isolated showers are observed east of 72W. A localized area of strong NE winds is noted offshore Colombia. The pressure gradient is weaker in the NW Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds and 2-4 ft seas. For the forecast, surface ridging north of the area will continue to support locally strong winds off the Colombian coast through Sun night. Similar winds are forecast across the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola through tonight, returning Sat night through Sun evening, as well as developing in the lee of Cuba then. Elsewhere, mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail through the weekend, locally strong in the Tropical N Atlantic and through eastern Caribbean Passages through Fri. Elevated seas in the Tropical N Atlantic will subside by the end of the weekend. A weak cold front will approach the area on Fri and dissipate into the NW basin during the weekend, diminishing winds to gentle to moderate speeds in the western and central Caribbean early on Mon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N76W to the coast of Florida near 27N80W. Showers are observed within 60 nm of the front. Moderate SW winds are ahead of the front with moderate W winds behind. Seas are 4-6 ft from 20N to 31N in the western Atlantic. Otherwise, the main feature in the Atlantic is a 1030 mb high centered near 32N50W. Winds are gentle near the high, gradually increasing southward. South of 25N, fresh easterly winds dominate with 6-10 ft seas. Moderate winds and 4-7 ft seas are observed in the eastern Atlantic, where the pressure gradient is weaker. For the forecast W of 55W, surface ridging over the SW N Atlantic waters will shift eastward as a cold front moves through the waters off N Florida. The front will extend from 31N75W to the northern Bahamas early Fri, from Bermuda to the central Bahamas early Sat, and exit the region Sun night. Moderate to fresh SW winds N of 29N and ahead of the front and NW winds behind the front will diminish on Fri. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds will prevail S of 24N and E of the Bahamas through Fri, with locally strong winds in the approaches of the Windward Passage and N of Hispaniola. Moderate seas in the SE waters will build slightly through Fri night in fresh NE to E trade wind swell. Another pair of cold fronts may move off N Florida early next week. $$ Flynn