000 AXNT20 KNHC 052326 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Jan 6 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia near 06N10W to 05N18W. The ITCZ continues from 05N18W to 01N45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 07N between 16W and 45W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from south of Tampa Bay, Florida to the central Gulf to the southern Bay of Campeche. A pre-frontal trough extends east of the front in the Bay of Campeche into the south- central Gulf with thunderstorms along it. Another trough also extends west of the front along the Mexico coast to Corpus Christi, TX. Behind the front, N-NE moderate to locally fresh winds are noted in the NE and central Gulf. Moderate NW winds are in the SW Bay of Campeche. High pressure extends over the NW Gulf, where light to gentle winds are noted. Light to gentle winds are also noted ahead of the front in the southern Gulf. Seas are to 5 ft in the central Gulf with 2-4 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, the cold front will exit the Gulf by early Fri while weakening. Moderate to locally fresh winds are forecast in the wake of the front through Fri. Return flow around high pressure over the SE U.S. will dominate this weekend, weakening Sun as the next front potentially moves into the northern Gulf while weakening. Fairly tranquil conditions are forecast early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure north of the area is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern and central Caribbean. Seas range 4-6 ft. A trough also extends over the Mona Passage and into the east-central basin with isolated thunderstorms within 60 nm of it. Showers are also streaming over the Lesser Antilles into the eastern Caribbean. Light to gentle winds are noted in the NW basin with no significant convection. Seas are to 4 ft in this area. For the forecast, surface ridging north of the area will continue to support locally strong winds off the Colombian coast through Sun night. Similar winds are forecast across the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola through tonight, returning Sat night through Sun evening, as well as developing in the lee of Cuba then. Elsewhere, mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail through the weekend, locally strong in the Tropical N Atlantic and through eastern Caribbean Passages through Fri. Elevated seas in the Tropical N Atlantic will subside by the end of the weekend. A weak cold front will approach the area on Fri and dissipate into the NW basin during the weekend, diminishing winds to gentle to moderate speeds in the western and central Caribbean early on Mon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends off the Florida coast from 31N77W to Melbourne, FL. Showers are noted within 60 nm of the front. Moderate to fresh SW winds are ahead of the front with gentle to locally moderate W winds behind it. Seas are to 7 ft, with the highest seas N of 30N and E of 77W. Farther south, a trough extends north of the Mona Passage to 22N67W. Scattered thunderstorms are noted along this feature. In the central Atlantic, a 1028 mb high pressure is centered near 31N51W and extends across most of the Atlantic waters. Light to gentle winds are noted directly beneath the high pres. Moderate to fresh easterly winds prevail across most of the waters S of 27N from the coast of Africa to the Turks and Caicos southward to the Lesser Antilles. There are some areas with strong winds below 20N. Seas to 8 ft are noted east of the Lesser Antilles and north of Puerto Rico, from 09N to 21N and E of 46W. Otherwise, seas range 4-7 ft across most of the Atlantic with no significant convection noted. For the forecast W of 55W, surface ridging over the SW N Atlantic waters will shift eastward as a cold front moves through the waters off N Florida. The front will extend from 31N75W to the northern Bahamas early Fri, from Bermuda to the central Bahamas early Sat, and exit the region Sun night. Moderate to fresh SW winds N of 29N and ahead of the front will diminish this evening. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds will prevail S of 24N and E of the Bahamas through Fri, with locally strong winds in the approaches of the Windward Passage and N of Hispaniola. Moderate seas in the SE waters will build slightly through Fri night in fresh NE to E trade wind swell. Another pair of cold fronts may move off N Florida early next week. $$ AReinhart