000 AXNT20 KNHC 051045 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Jan 5 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1040 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends along the S coast of Cote d'Ivoire and southern Liberia from 05N03W to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from 04N18W to 03N35W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 09N between 32W and 53W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend SW to the central Bay of Campeche. Except for moderate to fresh NW winds in the north-central gulf in the wake of the front, a generally weak pressure gradient across the area is supporting gentle to moderate N to NE winds W of the front and light to getle variable winds elsewhere. Seas are 3 to 4 ft basin-wide. For the forecast, the front will slowly shift east-southeast, extending from near Tampa Bay Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche this afternoon, and exit the Gulf by early Fri. Moderate to locally fresh winds are forecast in the wake of the front. Return flow around high pressure over the SE U.S. will dominate this weekend, weakening by Sun night as the next front potentially moves into the northern Gulf while weakening. Fairly tranquil conditions are forecast Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to locally strong NE winds prevail across the Windward Passage, and near the south coast of Dominican Republic, mainly between Santo Domingo and Cabo Beata. Fresh trades prevail elsewhere across much of the eastern and central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate E winds are occurring over the NW corner of the basin ahead of a cold front moving across the eastern and southwest Gulf of Mexico. Seas are 6-8 ft over Colombia adjacent waters, and 5-7 ft elsewhere across the east and central portions of the basin. Seas of 3-5 ft are noted in the NW Caribbean, except in the lee of Cuba where seas are in the 1-3 ft range. Seas are 4-6 ft in the area N of Jamaica to the Windward Passage. For the forecast, surface ridging north of the area will continue to support locally strong winds off the Colombian coast through Mon night. Similar winds are forecast across the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola through late today, returning across the Windward Passage Sat night through Sun night. Elsewhere, mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail through the weekend, locally strong in the Tropical N Atlantic and through eastern Caribbean Passages through Fri. A weak cold front will approach the area on Fri and dissipate into the NW basin during the weekend, thus diminishing winds to gentle to moderate speeds early on Mon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface ridge anchored by a 1029 mb high centered near 31N52W dominate the western, central and eastern subtropical Atlantic waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a surface trough moving across Puerto Rico is supporting the continuation of fresh to locally strong easterly winds S of 25N between 40W and 73W. Off the NE Florida coast, the pressure gradient between the ridge and an approaching cold front supports fresh to locally strong winds N of 29N and W of 73W. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere. Seas are 5-8 ft in the areas with strongest winds and 5-6 ft across the remainder subtropical waters. For the forecast west of 55W, surface ridging over the SW N Atlantic waters will shift eastward today as a cold front moves off N Florida. The front will extend from 31N74W to the northern Bahamas early Fri, from Bermuda to the central Bahamas by early Sat, and exit the region Sun night. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected to continue over the NE Florida offshore waters today ahead of the front. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds will prevail S of 26N and E of the Bahamas through Fri, with locally strong winds in the approaches of the Windward Passage and N of Hispaniola. Moderate seas in the SE waters will build slightly through Fri night in fresh NE to E trade wind swell. $$ Ramos