000 AXNT20 KNHC 050448 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Jan 5 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends along the S coast of Cote d'Ivoire and southern Liberia from 05N03W to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from 04N18W to 02N35W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 06N between 30W and 51W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend to a 1014 mb low pressure located near 21N94W to the central Bay of Campeche. A band of showers and thunderstorms is related to the front N of 25N. Most of this convective activity is affecting the NE Gulf and northern Florida. The remainder of the Gulf is free of any significant precipitation. Recent scatterometer data indicate light to gentle winds east of the front, locally stronger near tstms. Winds have diminished to 5-10 kt off the coast of Veracruz. Moderate or weaker winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 3 to 5 ft across most of the Gulf region. For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will slowly shift east-southeast, extending from near Tampa Bay Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche Thu afternoon, exiting the Gulf by early Fri. Moderate to locally fresh winds are forecast in the wake of the front. Return flow around high pressure over the SE U.S. will dominate this weekend, weakening by Sun night as the next front potentially moves into the northern Gulf while weakening. Fairly tranquil conditions are forecast Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level low is spinning between Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic. This feature is helping to induce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across portions of Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic, as well as over the eastern Caribbean waters, particularly north of 15N between 65W-71W. This convective activity will persist during the overnight hours. Elsewhere, shallow moisture embedded in the trade winds flow is moving westward across the basin producing isolated to scattered passing showers. Recent satellite derived wind data indicate fresh to locally strong NE winds across the Windward Passage, and near the south coast of Dominican Republic, mainly between Santo Domingo and Cabo Beata. Fresh trades prevail elsewhere across much of the eastern and central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate E-SE winds are occurring over the far NW corner of the basin ahead of a cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico. Seas are 6-8 ft over the south-central Caribbean, and 4-6 ft elsewhere across the east and central portions of the basin. Seas of 3-5 ft are noted in the NW Caribbean, except in the lee of Cuba where seas are in the 1-3 ft range. Seas are 5-7 ft in the area N of Jamaica to the Windward Passage. For the forecast, a ridge north of the area will continue to support locally strong winds off the Colombian coast through Mon night. Similar winds are forecast across the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola through Thu, returning across the Windward Passage Sun briefly. Elsewhere, mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail through the next several days, locally strong in the Tropical N Atlantic and through eastern Caribbean Passages through Fri. A weak cold front will approach the area by the end of the week, dissipating as it moves into the NW basin. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A band of showers and thunderstorms, ahead of a cold front moving across the NE Gulf of Mexico, is currently affecting northern Florida and the waters off NE Florida, particularly N of Cape Canaveral. Fresh to locally strong S to SW winds and seas 5-7 ft prevail north of 29N and west of 77W. An upper-level low near the Mona Passage is inducing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the waters S of 22N between 65W-71W. Mainly fresh NE-E winds with seas of 6-8 ft are also noted in this area. Multilayer clouds with possible shower are noted over the SE Caribbean Caribbean and much of the Lesser Antilles. These clouds extend eastward across the tropical Atlantic and are associated with SW to W strong upper-level winds. A 1030 mb high pressure is located E of Bermuda near 32N50W with a ridge extending toward the Bahamas and South Florida. Light to gentle winds and 3-5 ft seas are near the ridge axis while fresh trade winds prevail along the southern periphery of the ridge especially S of 22N between 40W-65W, with seas of 5-8 ft. A weakening cold front enters the forecast area near 31N48W, and continues SW to near 28N50W. Over the far E Atlantic, east of 35W, moderate to fresh winds and seas of 6-7 ft prevail under the influence of another ridge. For the forecast west of 55W, the ridge that dominates the SW N Atlantic waters will shift eastward as a cold front moves off NE Florida Thu. The front will extend from 31N74W to the northern Bahamas early Fri, from Bermuda to the central Bahamas by early Sat, and exit the region Sun night. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected over the NE Florida offshore waters tonight and Thu ahead of the front. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds will prevail S of 26N and E of the Bahamas through Fri, with locally strong winds in the approaches of the Windward Passage and N of Hispaniola. Moderate seas in the SE waters will build slightly through Fri night in fresh NE to E trade wind swell. $$ GR