000
AXNT20 KNHC 031024
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Jan 3 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1020 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast 
of Liberia near 06N10W and continues to 06N16W. The ITCZ extends 
from 06N16W to 02N30W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from the equator to 10N between 26W and 50W. 

GULF OF MEXICO... 

A ridge dominates the Gulf waters E of 90W while low pressure has
built W of 90W associated with an approaching cold front. The 
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure across the
western half of the basin supports fresh to strong southerly 
return flow basin-wide, being the strongest winds just W of 90W in
the central gulf. Seas are 5-8 ft over the NW Gulf due to the 
strongest winds, and 4-6 ft elsewhere. Otherwise, moist southerly
flow across the Gulf waters will continue to favor the development
of dense marine fog during the morning hours. A Dense Fog Advisory
is in effect until the late morning hours for the coastal waters 
from NE Texas to the Big Bend region in Florida. The dense fog is 
likely to reduce the visibility to below 1 nm, creating hazardous 
marine conditions.

For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between a developing 
winter storm over the US Southern Plains and high pressure over 
the W Atlantic will force fresh to strong SE to S return flow 
through tonight across the Gulf of Mexico. A cold front will 
slowly move off of the Texas coast this afternoon, reaching from 
the Big Bend of Florida to the Bay of Campeche Thu morning, and 
cross the Gulf by Thu night accompanied by only moderate to fresh 
winds in its wake on Fri and Sat. Patchy dense marine fog is 
possible at times, especially within 120 NM of the US coastline 
through this morning. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh trade winds prevail across most of the Caribbean
Sea, except for locally strong winds along the Windward Passage,
south of Hispaniola and offshore Colombia. Seas are in the 5-8 ft
range over the central Caribbean, and 4-6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, a surface ridge building north of the area will
force moderate to fresh trades across the Caribbean and the 
tropical N Atlantic through the forecast period. Locally strong 
trades are expected within 90 NM of the Colombian coast, within 
the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola through the weekend.
A weak cold front is forecast to reach the NW Caribbean on Fri 
with moderate to fresh NE winds and building seas Fri night and 
Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure dominates most of the Atlantic discussion waters
with a main 1032 mb center located between the Azores and the 
Madeira Islands near 35N22W. A surface trough is analyzed from 
29N57W to 22N60W. Some shower activity is near the trough axis. 
Light to gentle winds prevail across much of the waters north of 
26N and west of 42W under the influence of the ridge. The 
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the 
vicinity of the ITCZ is resulting in moderate to locally fresh 
trade winds across the tropical Atlantic with seas generally in 
the 5-7 ft range. Similar sea heights are noted N of the Cabo 
Verde Islands and E of 40W.

For the forecast W of 55W, surface ridging over the SW N Atlantic
waters will promote gentle or weaker winds north of 25N through 
early Wed. As the ridge strengthens on Wed and Thu, it will force 
fresh to strong tradewinds south of 25N including the Windward 
Passage. Fresh to strong SW winds ahead of a cold front are 
anticipated to occur north of the Bahamas on Wed and Thu. After 
emerging from the SE United States coast Thu night, the cold front
should extend from Bermuda to the central Bahamas Sat morning 
with moderate to fresh NW to N winds in its wake. 

$$
Ramos