000 AXNT20 KNHC 030524 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Jan 3 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Liberia near 06N10W and continues to 06N15W. The ITCZ extends from 06N15W to 02N30W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from the equator to 07N between 30W and 42W. GULF OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the Gulf waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures over Texas and NE Mexico supports fresh to strong southerly return flow over the western Gulf, except in the Bay of Campeche, and moderate to fresh SE to S winds across the eastern Gulf, including the Straits of Florida. Weaker winds are noted across the coastal waters of the W coast of the Florida peninsula. Seas are 6-8 ft over the NW Gulf due to the strongest winds, and 4-6 ft elsewhere, except 1-3 ft across the coastal waters of W Florida. Shower activity is limited across the basin. A moist southerly flow across the Gulf waters will continue to favor the development of dense marine fog during the overnight hours. Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until the late morning hours for the coastal waters from NE Texas to the Big Bend region in Florida. The dense fog is likely to reduce the visibility to below 1 nm, creating hazardous marine conditions. For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between a developing winter storm over the US Southern Plains and high pressure over the W Atlantic will force fresh to strong SE to S return flow across the Gulf of Mexico through Tue night. A cold front will slowly move off of the Texas coast Tue afternoon, reaching from the Big Bend of Florida to the Yucatan peninsula by Thu morning, and cross the SE Gulf by Thu night accompanied by only moderate to fresh winds in its wake on Fri and Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate to fresh trade winds prevail across most of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to locally strong winds are noted per scatterometer data and ship observations between Santo Domingo and Cabo Beata along the south coast of Dominican Republic, and near the Yucatan Channel. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range over the south-central Caribbean, and 4-6 ft elsewhere. Patches of low level moisture embedded in the trade wind flow are moving across the basin producing isolated to scattered passing showers. For the forecast, a surface ridge building north of the area will support moderate to fresh trades across the Caribbean and the tropical N Atlantic through Thu morning. Locally strong trades are expected within 90 NM of the Colombian coast, within the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola. Winds should diminish on Thu night over the Caribbean ahead of a front moving across the Gulf of Mexico, while the trades over the tropical N Atlantic will remain at a fresh breeze. The weakening cold front should reach the NW Caribbean on Fri with fresh NE winds and building seas Fri night and Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure dominates most of the Atlantic discussion waters with a main 1032 mb center located between the Azores and the Madeira Islands near 35N21W. A surface trough is analyzed from 31N57W to 24N65W. Some shower activity is near the trough axis. Light to gentle winds prevail across much of the waters north of 20N and west of 45W under the influence of a ridge. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ is resulting in moderate to locally fresh trade winds across the tropical Atlantic with seas generally in the 5-7 ft range. Similar sea heights are noted N of the Cabo Verde Islands and E of 35W. Abundant cloudiness, with possible embedded showers, associated with strong upper-level westerly winds dominates most of the tropical Atlantic. For the forecast W of 55W, a ridge over the SW N Atlantic waters will promote gentle or weaker winds north of 25N for the next two days. As the ridge strengthens on Wed and Thu, it will force fresh to strong tradewinds south of 25N including the Windward Passage. Fresh to strong SW winds ahead of a cold front are anticipated to occur north of the Bahamas on Wed and Thu. After emerging from the SE United States coast Thu night, the cold front should extend from Bermuda to the central Bahamas Sat morning with moderate to fresh NW to N winds in its wake. $$ GR